Osters IF 1-0 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osters IF vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Sandviken travel to Visma Arena to take on Osters IF. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 13 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osters IF — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osters IF haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Osters IF at Visma Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sandviken stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sandviken away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Osters IF at 2.10 PPG versus Sandviken's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Osters IF have won 0, Sandviken 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Osters IF in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sandviken in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 57% versus Sandviken 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 50% | Sandviken 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.25 xG and Sandviken 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.740 / defence 0.857 | Sandviken attack 0.962 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.340. Osters IF's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Osters IF games / 36 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 40% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 33%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Sandviken 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osters IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 60% | Sandviken 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 40% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Osters IF 1.25 / Sandviken 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.740 / def 0.857 | Sandviken attack 0.962 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sandviken xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Sandviken kick off?
Osters IF vs Sandviken kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Osters IF 1 - 0 Sandviken.
Where is Osters IF vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Sandviken part of?
Osters IF vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 40% chance of winning, Sandviken a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Osters IF and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Sandviken?
Record (2 meetings): Osters IF 0W | Draws 1 | Sandviken 1W.
What form are Osters IF and Sandviken in?
Osters IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Sandviken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 0.74x the league average against Sandviken's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Osters IF's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
40%
2.53
28%
3.59
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.35
1.10
Sandviken xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
9%
10.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.10 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osters IF come into this having played 30 games, going 15W 9D 6L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-W. Osters IF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (12W 5D 13L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five.
Osters IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Sandviken — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Osters IF's home form reads 9W 4D 2L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandviken have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osters IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osters IF are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.20 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Pre-Season
Sandviken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 15W 9D 6L in their last 30 games (1.80 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 12W 5D 13L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Sandviken away?
Osters IF's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 2.07 PPG; Sandviken away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sandviken in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osters IF's record when hosting Sandviken specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Osters IF
2
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Sandviken?
From 4 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 1, Sandviken have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Sandviken 1-1 Osters IF.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 53%, Sandviken 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Osters IF and 67% for Sandviken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sandviken in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Sandviken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Osters IF's recent matches and 47% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Osters IF's matches and 67% of Sandviken's.
Do Osters IF and Sandviken tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Sandviken 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Sandviken 1-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.25 xG and Sandviken 1.10 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.74 / defence 0.86 against Sandviken attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 40% | Draw 28% | Sandviken 33%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 50%, Sandviken 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sandviken's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.37. Form held, and they took the win. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.