Sandviken 1-0 Ljungskile SK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sandviken and Ljungskile SK meet at Jernvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandviken have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sandviken at Jernvallen this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.47 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.893 / defence 1.112 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.730 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.334. Data: 35 Sandviken games / 5 Ljungskile SK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 46% | Draw 26% | Ljungskile SK 28%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Ljungskile SK 3.57. Sandviken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandviken if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 46% | Draw 26% | Ljungskile SK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Sandviken 1.47 / Ljungskile SK 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.893 / def 1.112 | Ljungskile SK attack 0.730 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Ljungskile SK xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK kick off?
Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK?
Sandviken 1 - 0 Ljungskile SK.
Where is Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK part of?
Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 46% chance of winning, Ljungskile SK a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sandviken and Ljungskile SK will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Ljungskile SK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sandviken and Ljungskile SK in?
Sandviken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Sandviken home split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | CS 1.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 0.89x the league average against Ljungskile SK's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ljungskile SK's attack (0.73x) against Sandviken's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.83
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.55
1.08
Ljungskile SK xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Ljungskile SK expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.08 for Ljungskile SK, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Ljungskile SK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Pre-Season
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sandviken
0
Draws
1
Ljungskile SK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Ljungskile SK?
From 2 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 1, Ljungskile SK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Ljungskile SK last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Ljungskile SK 2-1 Sandviken.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Ljungskile SK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Sandviken edge out Ljungskile SK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Ljungskile SK 1-0 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.47 xG and Ljungskile SK 1.08 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ljungskile SK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.89 / defence 1.11 against Ljungskile SK attack 0.73 / defence 1.01, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 46% | Draw 26% | Ljungskile SK 28%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.