Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Norrby IF travel to Landskrona Idrottsplats to take on Landskrona BoIS. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 12 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 1W 1D 0L from 2 Superettan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Norrby IF have played only a handful of Superettan games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Norrby IF are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Landskrona BoIS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Norrby IF in 100% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 0 for Norrby IF and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.50 xG and Norrby IF 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.884 / defence 1.032 | Norrby IF attack 0.898 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.342. Data: 36 Landskrona BoIS games / 6 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 43% | Draw 25% | Norrby IF 32%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Norrby IF 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Landskrona BoIS dominate the H2H record, yet Norrby IF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Landskrona BoIS at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Norrby IF (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 43% | Draw 25% | Norrby IF 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.50 / Norrby IF 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.884 / def 1.032 | Norrby IF attack 0.898 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Norrby IF xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 43% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF?
Record (4 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 2W | Draws 2 | Norrby IF 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Norrby IF (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Landskrona BoIS's attack at 0.88x the league average against Norrby IF's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
43%
2.32
25%
3.94
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.74
1.24
Norrby IF xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.24 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Norrby IF's form line: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-D. It's still early in the season for Norrby IF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Norrby IF are the form team by 1.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Landskrona BoIS.
The Goals Picture
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Norrby IF in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Early Season
Norrby IF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Norrby IF specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
3
Draws
0
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF?
From 5 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Norrby IF have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 1-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Landskrona BoIS's games and 100% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 50% of Norrby IF's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS and Norrby IF finished level at 1-1 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.50 xG and Norrby IF 1.24 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Norrby IF attack 0.90 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 43% | Draw 25% | Norrby IF 32%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 100%, Norrby IF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Landskrona BoIS conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Norrby IF managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.