GIF Sundsvall 1-2 IK brage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus IK brage in Superettan, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Monday 20 April 2026 at 17:05 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 3W 4D 3L at NP3 Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IK brage have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, IK brage have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IK brage in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to IK brage, who have claimed 4 wins from 8 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
It is worth noting that IK brage have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
GIF Sundsvall — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IK brage — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 52% versus IK brage 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | IK brage 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.43 xG and IK brage 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.048 / defence 1.120 | IK brage attack 0.968 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.219. Data: 32 GIF Sundsvall games / 32 IK brage games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Draw 26% | IK brage 35%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | IK brage 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 60% | IK brage 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 20 Apr 2026, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 40% | Draw 26% | IK brage 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.43 / IK brage 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.048 / def 1.120 | IK brage attack 0.968 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.32
IK brage xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage kicked off at 17:05 on Monday 20 April 2026 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 2 IK brage.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 40% chance of winning, IK brage a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and IK brage will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
Record (8 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 3 | IK brage 4W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. IK brage (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (1.05) and IK brage's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IK brage's attack (0.97x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
40%
2.52
26%
3.92
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.75
1.32
IK brage xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
8%
11.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.32 for IK brage, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall's recent record stands at 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
IK brage, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 22L across 60 games — 1.37 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.37 for IK brage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, GIF Sundsvall have managed 10W 9D 11L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IK brage's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; IK brage are on 1.37 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Current Season
IK brage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and IK brage in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while IK brage have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or IK brage away?
IK brage's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.30 PPG; IK brage away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IK brage won 5-0 on 23 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IK brage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
3
Draws
5
IK brage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
From 9 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, IK brage have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and IK brage last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and IK brage?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 60%, IK brage 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (GIF Sundsvall) and 43% (IK brage).
On the defensive side: IK brage in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / IK brage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play IK brage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 50% of IK brage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs IK brage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 43% of IK brage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and IK brage tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, IK brage in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IK brage defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.43 xG and IK brage 1.32 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.05 / defence 1.12 against IK brage attack 0.97 / defence 0.84, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 40% | Draw 26% | IK brage 35%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual IK brage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 48%, IK brage 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.28 PPG, IK brage 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.