Ljungskile SK 4-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Helsingborg make the trip to Skarsjövallen to face Ljungskile SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 24 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Helsingborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Helsingborg away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ljungskile SK 1.25 xG and Helsingborg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ljungskile SK attack 0.672 / defence 1.121 | Helsingborg attack 0.975 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.239. Ljungskile SK's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Ljungskile SK games / 33 Helsingborg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 34% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 39%. Fair-value odds: Ljungskile SK 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Helsingborg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Helsingborg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Skarsjövallen • Kick-off: Friday 24 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ljungskile SK 34% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Ljungskile SK 1.25 / Helsingborg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Ljungskile SK attack 0.672 / def 1.121 | Helsingborg attack 0.975 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ljungskile SK xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Helsingborg xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg kick off?
Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 24 April 2026 at Skarsjövallen.
What was the final score in Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg?
Ljungskile SK 4 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Skarsjövallen.
What competition is Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg part of?
Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives Ljungskile SK a 34% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ljungskile SK and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Helsingborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ljungskile SK and Helsingborg in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Helsingborg away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ljungskile SK's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.97x) against Ljungskile SK's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
The sample (3/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
34%
2.91
26%
3.80
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ljungskile SK xG
Total xG
2.60
1.35
Helsingborg xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 10.0 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Ljungskile SK and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ljungskile SK and 1.35 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ljungskile SK vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ljungskile SK
Pre-Season
Helsingborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Ljungskile SK
0
Draws
0
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ljungskile SK and Helsingborg?
From 1 meetings on record, Ljungskile SK have won 1, Helsingborg have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ljungskile SK and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Ljungskile SK 4-1 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Ljungskile SK and Helsingborg?
Ljungskile SK have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ljungskile SK home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Ljungskile SK run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ljungskile SK beat Helsingborg 4-1 at Skarsjövallen, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ljungskile SK 1.25 xG and Helsingborg 1.35 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Ljungskile SK beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ljungskile SK attack 0.67 / defence 1.12 against Helsingborg attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ljungskile SK 34% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 39%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Ljungskile SK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.