Jonkopings Sodra 2-3 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees AFC Eskilstuna travel to Stadsparksvallen to take on Jonkopings Sodra. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jonkopings Sodra at Stadsparksvallen this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
AFC Eskilstuna — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AFC Eskilstuna are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Jonkopings Sodra, 2 for AFC Eskilstuna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with AFC Eskilstuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
AFC Eskilstuna in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 50% versus AFC Eskilstuna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 43% | AFC Eskilstuna 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.45 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.907 / defence 0.974 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.049 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.241. Data: 30 Jonkopings Sodra games / 30 AFC Eskilstuna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 27% | AFC Eskilstuna 32%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AFC Eskilstuna (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 40% | AFC Eskilstuna 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 27% | AFC Eskilstuna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.45 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.907 / def 0.974 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.049 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.27
AFC Eskilstuna xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Jonkopings Sodra 2 - 3 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 41% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (2 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 0 | AFC Eskilstuna 2W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 0.91x the league average against AFC Eskilstuna's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Eskilstuna's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.75
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.72
1.27
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.27 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 8D 12L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, AFC Eskilstuna sit at 1.33 PPG from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.27 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Eskilstuna have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jonkopings Sodra come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.37 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 10W 8D 12L in their last 30 games (1.27 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 11W 7D 12L in their last 30 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.53 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting AFC Eskilstuna specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
1
Draws
4
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 28 October 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 2-2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna?
AFC Eskilstuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 53%, AFC Eskilstuna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 53% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 40% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play AFC Eskilstuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 53% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 53% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AFC Eskilstuna defy the odds to beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Eskilstuna beat Jonkopings Sodra 2-3 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 1, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.45 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.27 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.05 / defence 1.11, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 41% | Draw 27% | AFC Eskilstuna 32%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual AFC Eskilstuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 43%, AFC Eskilstuna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.27 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AFC Eskilstuna win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.