Osters IF 1-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 36%, yet in-form Jonkopings Sodra provide a compelling counter-argument — this Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Visma Arena plays host to Osters IF versus Jonkopings Sodra in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 27 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 games at Visma Arena this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Jonkopings Sodra (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record: 2W 1D 4L from 7 road trips in Superettan this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Jonkopings Sodra are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 33% versus Jonkopings Sodra 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osters IF 25% | Jonkopings Sodra 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.09 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 0.908 / defence 1.097 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.897 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 0.995 / away 1.091. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Osters IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Osters IF games / 12 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 36% | Draw 29% | Jonkopings Sodra 35%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jonkopings Sodra (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 50% | Jonkopings Sodra 43%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Visma Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 36% | Draw 29% | Jonkopings Sodra 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Osters IF 1.09 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 0.908 / def 1.097 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.897 / def 1.203 | league avg home 0.995 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Jonkopings Sodra xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 27 July 2021 at Visma Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Osters IF 1 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Visma Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 36% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Osters IF (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Osters IF's attack at 0.91x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (0.90x) against Osters IF's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
36%
2.81
29%
3.40
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.16
1.07
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
12%
8.23
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.07 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osters IF come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 3D 5L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jonkopings Sodra sit at 1.75 PPG from 12 outings (6W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Osters IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Osters IF's home form reads 2W 2D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Jonkopings Sodra have taken 1.17 points per game from 6 outings (2W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jonkopings Sodra's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.67 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 6W 3D 3L in their last 12 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Osters IF's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.33 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Osters IF or Jonkopings Sodra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osters IF have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Jonkopings Sodra in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Osters IF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 4-0 on 29 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Osters IF
0
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 6 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Osters IF 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 50%, Jonkopings Sodra 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Osters IF) and 50% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Osters IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Osters IF have failed to score in 33% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Osters IF's recent matches and 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Osters IF's recent games and 50% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Osters IF edge out Jonkopings Sodra 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Jonkopings Sodra 1-0 at Visma Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.09 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.07 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jonkopings Sodra landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 36% | Draw 29% | Jonkopings Sodra 35%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 25%, Jonkopings Sodra 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jonkopings Sodra arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Osters IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Osters IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.