IFK Varnamo 3-1 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 39%, yet in-form IFK Varnamo provide a compelling counter-argument — this IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finnvedsvallen plays host to IFK Varnamo versus Helsingborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Varnamo have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo at Finnvedsvallen this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Finnvedsvallen.
Helsingborg's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in IFK Varnamo's favour (2.30 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: IFK Varnamo 1W, Helsingborg 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2021, ended 3–2 with IFK Varnamo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Varnamo — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 37% versus Helsingborg 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 33% | Helsingborg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.33 xG and Helsingborg 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 1.154 / defence 1.016 | Helsingborg attack 1.144 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.229. Data: 27 IFK Varnamo games / 27 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 39%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Helsingborg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Varnamo (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: IFK Varnamo 40% | Helsingborg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.33 / Helsingborg 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 1.154 / def 1.016 | Helsingborg attack 1.144 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Helsingborg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg?
IFK Varnamo 3 - 1 Helsingborg.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 35% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 0 | Helsingborg 0W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Helsingborg's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (1.14x) against IFK Varnamo's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
35%
2.87
26%
3.84
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.76
1.43
Helsingborg xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.00
10%
9.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.43 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 2.07 PPG on a 17W 5D 5L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Helsingborg's form line: 13W 7D 7L from 27 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.07 PPG for IFK Varnamo against 1.70 for Helsingborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 2.46 PPG from 13 outings (10W 2D 1L).
On the road, Helsingborg have gone 6W 5D 2L from 13 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.59 scored and 0.85 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Helsingborg in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 17W 5D 5L in their last 27 games (2.07 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 13W 7D 7L in their last 27 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Helsingborg away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.46 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.77 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 16 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Varnamo won 1-4 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Varnamo have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
IFK Varnamo
0
Draws
1
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg?
From 5 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 4, Helsingborg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 June 2026, when IFK Varnamo 0-1 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 38%, Helsingborg 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 23% (IFK Varnamo) and 54% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Helsingborg in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 38% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 54% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Helsingborg tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Helsingborg 3-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.33 xG and Helsingborg 1.43 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IFK Varnamo beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Helsingborg attack 1.14 / defence 1.06, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 35% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 39%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual IFK Varnamo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 33%, Helsingborg 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Helsingborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 2.07 PPG, Helsingborg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.