Norrby IF 1-4 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIF Sundsvall make the trip to Borås Arena to face Norrby IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Norrby IF have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Borås Arena, Norrby IF have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, GIF Sundsvall are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Norrby IF lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2021, ended 0–2 with GIF Sundsvall winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Norrby IF half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 52% versus GIF Sundsvall 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Norrby IF 41% | GIF Sundsvall 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 0.99 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 0.909 / defence 1.093 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.795 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.235. Data: 27 Norrby IF games / 27 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 32% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 36%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | GIF Sundsvall 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Norrby IF 50% | GIF Sundsvall 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 32% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Norrby IF 0.99 / GIF Sundsvall 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 0.909 / def 1.093 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.795 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.07
GIF Sundsvall xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Norrby IF 1 - 4 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 32% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Norrby IF 0W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 1W.
What form are Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Norrby IF's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against GIF Sundsvall's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.80x) against Norrby IF's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
32%
3.09
31%
3.21
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
2.07
1.07
GIF Sundsvall xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 13.6 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.07 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Norrby IF have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 11W 9D 7L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 14W 7D 6L from 27 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Norrby IF against 1.81 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Norrby IF have posted 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 5W 4D 4L from 13 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Norrby IF are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.48 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: GIF Sundsvall in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 11W 9D 7L in their last 27 games (1.56 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 14W 7D 6L in their last 27 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Norrby IF's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 1.54 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIF Sundsvall won 1-4 on 7 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Norrby IF have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
0
Draws
2
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 3 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Norrby IF 3-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 54%, GIF Sundsvall 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Norrby IF and 31% for GIF Sundsvall.
On the defensive side: Norrby IF keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Norrby IF have failed to score in 31% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Norrby IF's recent matches and 54% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norrby IF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Norrby IF's recent games and 31% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant GIF Sundsvall run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Norrby IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Norrby IF 1-4 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 0.99 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.07 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall outscored their 1.07 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 32% | Draw 31% | GIF Sundsvall 36%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 41%, GIF Sundsvall 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Norrby IF 1.56 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIF Sundsvall win broke the near-deadlock. Norrby IF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.