Helsingborg 0-3 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Helsingborg at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helsingborg vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Helsingborg and Trelleborg meet at Olympia in Superettan (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Helsingborg's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Helsingborg have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Trelleborg have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Helsingborg's 2.50 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Trelleborg's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Helsingborg, 2 for Trelleborg and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 17 May 2024, ended Helsingborg 0–0 Trelleborg — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 58%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 50% versus Trelleborg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 44% | Trelleborg 52%). Note also that Trelleborg surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Helsingborg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 58% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.36 xG and Trelleborg 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 0.892 / defence 0.883 | Trelleborg attack 0.886 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.223. Data: built from Helsingborg's last 50 games and Trelleborg's last 50.
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 45% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 25%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.23 | Draw 3.33 | Trelleborg 3.99. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Helsingborg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Helsingborg's last 10 home games and Trelleborg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Helsingborg 50% (last 10 home games) | Trelleborg 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, matchday 21 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 45% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Helsingborg 1.36 / Trelleborg 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 0.892 / def 0.883 | Trelleborg attack 0.886 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Trelleborg xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helsingborg vs Trelleborg FAQs
What time does Helsingborg vs Trelleborg kick off?
Helsingborg vs Trelleborg kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Helsingborg 0 - 3 Trelleborg.
Where is Helsingborg vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Trelleborg part of?
Helsingborg vs Trelleborg is a Superettan fixture (matchday 21) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 45% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Helsingborg and Trelleborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Helsingborg vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 0.89x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.89x) against Helsingborg's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from Helsingborg's last 50 games and Trelleborg's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.33
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.32
0.96
Trelleborg xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
6%
15.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helsingborg vs Trelleborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.96 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 18W 15D 17L from 50 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Trelleborg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 19L across 50 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.30 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 9W 8D 8L from their last 25 home games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Trelleborg's away record stands at 7W 8D 10L across their last 25 away games, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Helsingborg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.22 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
Helsingborg (Home) vs Trelleborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helsingborg
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Helsingborg vs Trelleborg Form FAQs
What form are Helsingborg and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 18W 15D 17L in their last 50 games (1.38 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 17W 14D 19L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Trelleborg away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.40 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Helsingborg and Trelleborg, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 29 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Trelleborg won Helsingborg 0-3 Trelleborg on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Helsingborg
4
Draws
3
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Helsingborg vs Trelleborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Trelleborg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Helsingborg have won 1, Trelleborg have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Trelleborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 September 2025: Helsingborg 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 48%, Trelleborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Helsingborg) and 48% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 32% of games; Trelleborg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helsingborg vs Trelleborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helsingborg and Trelleborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 60% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Helsingborg and Trelleborg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Helsingborg's recent games and 48% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Trelleborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 60% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 72% of Trelleborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Trelleborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Helsingborg 0-3 at Olympia, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.36 xG and Trelleborg 0.96 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Helsingborg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Trelleborg outscored their 0.96 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Trelleborg attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 45% | Draw 30% | Trelleborg 25%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Trelleborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 44%, Trelleborg 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trelleborg's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.38 PPG, Trelleborg 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Trelleborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.