IK brage 0-3 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen plays host to IK brage versus Helsingborg in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Tuesday 27 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
IK brage (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's home record at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Superettan appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — IK brage are significantly better at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen than their overall form suggests.
Helsingborg have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Helsingborg are 0.50 PPG clear of IK brage in recent Superettan fixtures (2.20 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IK brage lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Helsingborg half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 45% versus Helsingborg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 45% | Helsingborg 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.43 xG and Helsingborg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 1.133 / defence 0.740 | Helsingborg attack 1.325 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.187. Helsingborg have an above-average attack strength of 1.325 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. IK brage's defence rating of 0.740 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 IK brage games / 49 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 42% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 30%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Helsingborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Helsingborg (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IK brage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: IK brage 30% | Helsingborg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Helsingborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 42% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG IK brage 1.43 / Helsingborg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 1.133 / def 0.740 | Helsingborg attack 1.325 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: IK brage (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Helsingborg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Helsingborg kick off?
IK brage vs Helsingborg kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Helsingborg?
IK brage 0 - 3 Helsingborg.
Where is IK brage vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Helsingborg part of?
IK brage vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 42% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both IK brage and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Helsingborg?
Record (5 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 2 | Helsingborg 2W.
What form are IK brage and Helsingborg in?
IK brage (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Helsingborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IK brage's attack rating (1.13) and Helsingborg's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (1.32x) against IK brage's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
42%
2.35
28%
3.64
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.59
1.16
Helsingborg xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
7%
13.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.7 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are IK brage and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for IK brage and 1.16 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IK brage come into this having played 49 games, going 21W 10D 18L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 1.35 PPG from 49 outings (17W 15D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for IK brage against 1.35 for Helsingborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
IK brage's home form reads 16W 4D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — IK brage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 1.29 points per game from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IK brage are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.20 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 21W 10D 18L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 17W 15D 17L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Helsingborg away?
IK brage's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 2.17 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.29 PPG.
Have IK brage or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IK brage have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 3 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 3-0 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
IK brage
2
Draws
5
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Helsingborg?
From 9 meetings on record, IK brage have won 2, Helsingborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Helsingborg 2-0 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 50%, Helsingborg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (IK brage) and 50% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Helsingborg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IK brage's recent matches and 54% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of IK brage's recent games and 50% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Helsingborg tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Helsingborg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat IK brage 0-3 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.43 xG and Helsingborg 1.16 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. IK brage fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Helsingborg outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 1.13 / defence 0.74 against Helsingborg attack 1.32 / defence 0.86, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 42% | Draw 28% | Helsingborg 30%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Helsingborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 45%, Helsingborg 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Helsingborg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.49 PPG, Helsingborg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.