Sandviken 4-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Trelleborg make the trip to Arena Jernvallen to face Sandviken in Superettan, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sandviken (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sandviken at Arena Jernvallen this season: 7W 0D 2L from 9 home games — 2.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Trelleborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sandviken. A 0.50 PPG lead over Trelleborg (1.90 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sandviken lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Trelleborg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sandviken goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Trelleborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 47% versus Trelleborg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 58% | Trelleborg 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.53 xG and Trelleborg 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 1.183 / defence 0.823 | Trelleborg attack 0.978 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.159. Data: 19 Sandviken games / 49 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 51% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 22%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Trelleborg 4.55. Sandviken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sandviken are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandviken if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Sandviken 44% | Trelleborg 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 51% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Sandviken 1.53 / Trelleborg 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 1.183 / def 0.823 | Trelleborg attack 0.978 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Trelleborg xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Trelleborg kick off?
Sandviken vs Trelleborg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Trelleborg?
Sandviken 4 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Sandviken vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Trelleborg part of?
Sandviken vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 51% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sandviken and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Sandviken 0W | Draws 0 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Sandviken and Trelleborg in?
Sandviken (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 1.18x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (0.98x) against Sandviken's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 19/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.69
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.47
0.93
Trelleborg xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
5%
20.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Sandviken and 0.93 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sandviken come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 4D 6L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.37 PPG from 19 outings (7W 5D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Sandviken against 1.37 for Trelleborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sandviken's home form reads 7W 0D 2L across 9 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandviken are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.11 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 9W 4D 6L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 7W 5D 7L in their last 19 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Trelleborg away?
Sandviken's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 2.33 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Sandviken or Trelleborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Trelleborg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 14 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sandviken have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandviken won 4-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sandviken have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sandviken
0
Draws
1
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Trelleborg?
From 4 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 3, Trelleborg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2025, when Trelleborg 1-2 Sandviken.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Trelleborg?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 44%, Trelleborg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sandviken) and 33% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: Sandviken keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Trelleborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Trelleborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sandviken's recent matches and 44% of Trelleborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sandviken's recent games and 33% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sandviken and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sandviken run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Trelleborg 4-0 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.53 xG and Trelleborg 0.93 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Trelleborg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 1.18 / defence 0.82 against Trelleborg attack 0.98 / defence 0.89, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 51% | Draw 27% | Trelleborg 22%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 58%, Trelleborg 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Trelleborg's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.63 PPG, Trelleborg 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.