Skövde AIK 0-1 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 21 as Skövde AIK welcome Gefle IF to Södermalms IP. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Skövde AIK have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Skövde AIK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Skövde AIK have posted 3W 2D 5L at Södermalms IP — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Södermalms IP. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Skövde AIK are significantly better at Södermalms IP than their overall form suggests.
Gefle IF — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Gefle IF have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Skövde AIK) versus 0.80 (Gefle IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Skövde AIK, 2 for Gefle IF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Gefle IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Skövde AIK in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Gefle IF in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Skövde AIK 44% versus Gefle IF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Skövde AIK 50% | Gefle IF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.35 xG and Gefle IF 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.664 / defence 1.056 | Gefle IF attack 1.004 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.223. Skövde AIK's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Gefle IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Skövde AIK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Skövde AIK games / 50 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 29% | Gefle IF 34%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Gefle IF 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Skövde AIK are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Skövde AIK 20% | Gefle IF 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 29% | Gefle IF 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Skövde AIK 1.35 / Gefle IF 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.664 / def 1.056 | Gefle IF attack 1.004 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Gefle IF xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF?
Skövde AIK 0 - 1 Gefle IF.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF part of?
Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 37% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Skövde AIK and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Gefle IF?
Record (3 meetings): Skövde AIK 1W | Draws 0 | Gefle IF 2W.
What form are Skövde AIK and Gefle IF in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Gefle IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Skövde AIK's attack at 0.66x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
37%
2.71
29%
3.50
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
2.65
1.30
Gefle IF xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 1.30 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 15W 10D 25L from 50 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Skövde AIK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gefle IF, meanwhile, have gone 14W 16D 20L across 50 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Skövde AIK on 1.10 PPG, Gefle IF on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Skövde AIK have managed 12W 4D 9L from 25 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.10 PPG overall — Skövde AIK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Gefle IF's away record stands at 3W 9D 13L across 25 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Skövde AIK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Skövde AIK are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.30 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 15W 10D 25L in their last 50 games (1.10 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 14W 16D 20L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Skövde AIK at home or Gefle IF away?
Skövde AIK's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Skövde AIK at home: 1.60 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.72 PPG.
Have Skövde AIK or Gefle IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Gefle IF in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gefle IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Gefle IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Skövde AIK's record when hosting Gefle IF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Skövde AIK
0
Draws
3
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 1, Gefle IF have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2024, when Skövde AIK 0-1 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Gefle IF?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Skövde AIK see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Skövde AIK 32%, Gefle IF 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Skövde AIK) and 56% (Gefle IF).
On the defensive side: Skövde AIK keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Skövde AIK have failed to score in 32% of games; Gefle IF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Gefle IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 56% of Gefle IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Skövde AIK's recent games and 56% of Gefle IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Skövde AIK and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gefle IF defy the odds to beat Skövde AIK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat Skövde AIK 0-1 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.35 xG and Gefle IF 1.30 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Skövde AIK fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.66 / defence 1.06 against Gefle IF attack 1.00 / defence 1.41, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 37% | Draw 29% | Gefle IF 34%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gefle IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 50%, Gefle IF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Skövde AIK's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gefle IF's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Skövde AIK 1.10 PPG, Gefle IF 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gefle IF win broke the near-deadlock. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Gefle IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.