Helsingborg 1-3 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympia plays host to Helsingborg versus Varbergs BoIS FC in Superettan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Helsingborg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Olympia this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Varbergs BoIS FC's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Varbergs BoIS FC's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.30 for Varbergs BoIS FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Helsingborg lead 3W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Jul 2025, ended 1–2 with Varbergs BoIS FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Helsingborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 43% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 52% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.85 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 1.242 / defence 0.825 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.229 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.441. Varbergs BoIS FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.229 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 37 Helsingborg games / 37 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 47% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.13 | Draw 4.35 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.23. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Helsingborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.31 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 50% | Varbergs BoIS FC 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 47% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Helsingborg 1.85 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 1.242 / def 0.825 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.229 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 19 May 2026 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Helsingborg 1 - 3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 47% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 31% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (8 meetings): Helsingborg 3W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 4W.
What form are Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Helsingborg's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.85. Flip it around — Varbergs BoIS FC's attack (1.23x) against Helsingborg's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
47%
2.13
23%
4.44
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
3.31
1.46
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
5%
20.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Helsingborg and 1.46 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Helsingborg have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 24W 16D 20L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 21W 19D 20L from 60 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Helsingborg against 1.37 for Varbergs BoIS FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Helsingborg have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (11W 10D 9L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 9W 9D 12L from 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Helsingborg are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.52 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Varbergs BoIS FC in 67%.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 games (1.47 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 21W 19D 20L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.43 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 19 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Varbergs BoIS FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Varbergs BoIS FC won 0-3 on 15 Jun 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helsingborg have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Varbergs BoIS FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Helsingborg
1
Draws
5
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Helsingborg 1-3 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 47%, Varbergs BoIS FC 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Helsingborg) and 63% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Helsingborg's games and 73% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helsingborg vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Helsingborg's recent games and 63% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Varbergs BoIS FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Helsingborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Helsingborg 1-3 at Olympia, Regular Season - 8, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.85 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.46 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Helsingborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.24 / defence 0.82 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.23 / defence 0.98, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 47% | Draw 23% | Varbergs BoIS FC 31%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Varbergs BoIS FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 52%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helsingborg 1.47 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Varbergs BoIS FC win broke the near-deadlock. Helsingborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.