Sandviken 0-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sandviken at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 9 as Sandviken welcome Landskrona BoIS to Jernvallen. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sandviken — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sandviken's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Jernvallen this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Sandviken have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sandviken, 3 for Landskrona BoIS and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sandviken in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 63% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.27 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.897 / defence 0.930 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.890 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.394. Data: 38 Sandviken games / 38 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 39% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 33%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Landskrona BoIS lead the H2H ledger, but Sandviken carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sandviken at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sandviken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sandviken 60% | Landskrona BoIS 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Jernvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 39% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Sandviken 1.27 / Landskrona BoIS 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.897 / def 0.930 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.890 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Sandviken 0 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 39% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (4 meetings): Sandviken 1W | Draws 0 | Landskrona BoIS 3W.
What form are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS in?
Sandviken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 0.90x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Sandviken's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.65
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sandviken xG
Total xG
2.43
1.15
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.2 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.15 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Sandviken have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 24W 12D 24L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 24W 15D 21L from 60 games, 1.45 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sandviken on 1.40 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sandviken have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (16W 4D 10L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 5D 14L from 30 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sandviken are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.38 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 24W 12D 24L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 15D 21L in their last 60 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Sandviken's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 1.73 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Landskrona BoIS have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Landskrona BoIS won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sandviken's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Sandviken
0
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS?
From 5 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sandviken 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 50%, Landskrona BoIS 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Sandviken) and 57% (Landskrona BoIS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sandviken have failed to score in 27% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sandviken's recent matches and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sandviken vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sandviken's matches and 57% of Landskrona BoIS's.
Do Sandviken and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat Sandviken 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Sandviken 0-1 at Jernvallen, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.27 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.15 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sandviken fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 39% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 33%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 63%, Landskrona BoIS 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.40 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.