Gefle IF 3-2 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Osters IF travel to Gavlevallen to take on Gefle IF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 June 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Osters IF — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Osters IF's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.46 xG and Osters IF 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.956 / defence 1.354 | Osters IF attack 1.315 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.141. Osters IF have an above-average attack strength of 1.315 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 11 Gefle IF games / 41 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 28% | Draw 21% | Osters IF 51%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 3.57 | Draw 4.76 | Osters IF 1.96. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.49 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jun 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 28% | Draw 21% | Osters IF 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Gefle IF 1.46 / Osters IF 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.956 / def 1.354 | Osters IF attack 1.315 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Osters IF xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Osters IF kick off?
Gefle IF vs Osters IF kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 June 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Osters IF?
Gefle IF 3 - 2 Osters IF.
Where is Gefle IF vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Osters IF part of?
Gefle IF vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 28% chance of winning, Osters IF a 51% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Gefle IF and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Osters IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gefle IF and Osters IF in?
Osters IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Osters IF away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gefle IF's attack at 0.96x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
28%
3.60
21%
4.66
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
3.49
2.03
Osters IF xG
3.60
28%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
13%
7.61
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
4%
27.40
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Gefle IF and 2.03 for Osters IF, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
Osters IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gefle IF and Osters IF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gefle IF's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Gefle IF
1
Draws
0
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Osters IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 3, Osters IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when Gefle IF 2-1 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Osters IF?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Gefle IF defy the odds to beat Osters IF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat Osters IF 3-2 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.46 xG and Osters IF 2.03 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gefle IF beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.96 / defence 1.35 against Osters IF attack 1.31 / defence 1.14, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 28% | Draw 21% | Osters IF 51%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Gefle IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.