IK brage 2-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 47%, yet in-form Landskrona BoIS provide a compelling counter-argument — this IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Landskrona BoIS at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 June 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, IK brage have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 2W 3D 5L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Landskrona BoIS stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Landskrona BoIS away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Landskrona BoIS — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IK brage, 0 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 62% and Landskrona BoIS 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 60% | Landskrona BoIS 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.23 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.975 / defence 0.915 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.757 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.113. Data: 41 IK brage games / 41 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 47% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 23%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Landskrona BoIS 4.35. IK brage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IK brage are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Landskrona BoIS (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.00 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IK brage 60% | Landskrona BoIS 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 47% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG IK brage 1.23 / Landskrona BoIS 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.975 / def 0.915 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.757 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: IK brage (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Landskrona BoIS xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage 2 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 47% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both IK brage and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (3 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 2 | Landskrona BoIS 0W.
What form are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS in?
IK brage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IK brage's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.37
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.00
0.77
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
22%
4.58
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for IK brage and 0.77 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IK brage come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 18D 21L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Landskrona BoIS sit at 1.47 PPG from 60 outings (24W 16D 20L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.35 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IK brage's home form reads 11W 8D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Landskrona BoIS have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (5W 9D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IK brage are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.35 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IK brage have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 21W 18D 21L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
IK brage's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.37 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IK brage
5
Draws
2
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 2-2 IK brage.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Landskrona BoIS?
IK brage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 50%, Landskrona BoIS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IK brage) and 50% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 27% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IK brage's recent matches and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of IK brage's recent games and 50% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IK brage edge out Landskrona BoIS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IK brage beat Landskrona BoIS 2-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.23 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.77 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.97 / defence 0.92 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.76 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 47% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 23%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 60%, Landskrona BoIS 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.35 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IK brage win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.