Gefle IF 2-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gefle IF at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gavlevallen plays host to Gefle IF versus AFC Eskilstuna in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 8 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gefle IF have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gefle IF have posted 3W 1D 2L at Gavlevallen — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Gefle IF are significantly better at Gavlevallen than their overall form suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Eskilstuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AFC Eskilstuna have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Gefle IF against 1.00 for AFC Eskilstuna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Gefle IF half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
AFC Eskilstuna half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gefle IF 58% versus AFC Eskilstuna 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gefle IF 50% | AFC Eskilstuna 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.54 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 1.005 / defence 1.347 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.873 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.109. Data: 12 Gefle IF games / 42 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 43% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 32%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gefle IF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gefle IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Gefle IF 67% | AFC Eskilstuna 30%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 43% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Gefle IF 1.54 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 1.005 / def 1.347 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.873 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Gefle IF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.30
AFC Eskilstuna xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 July 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Gefle IF 2 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 43% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gefle IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gefle IF and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gefle IF and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Gefle IF (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gefle IF's attack at 1.00x the league average against AFC Eskilstuna's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (0.87x) against Gefle IF's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 12/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gefle IF Win
43%
2.33
25%
4.02
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.84
1.30
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
7%
14.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.30 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gefle IF's recent record stands at 4W 2D 6L from 12 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AFC Eskilstuna, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 5L across 12 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for AFC Eskilstuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Gefle IF against 0.92 for AFC Eskilstuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gefle IF have managed 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Gefle IF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
AFC Eskilstuna's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gefle IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gefle IF are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 0.67 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Blended
AFC Eskilstuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gefle IF and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Gefle IF have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 2W 5D 5L in their last 12 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gefle IF at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Gefle IF's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gefle IF at home: 1.67 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gefle IF
0
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 2 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 1, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 2-1 Gefle IF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
AFC Eskilstuna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gefle IF 67%, AFC Eskilstuna 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Gefle IF and 67% for AFC Eskilstuna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AFC Eskilstuna in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gefle IF play AFC Eskilstuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Gefle IF's recent matches and 33% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gefle IF vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Gefle IF's matches and 67% of AFC Eskilstuna's.
Do Gefle IF and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Gefle IF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gefle IF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AFC Eskilstuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat AFC Eskilstuna 2-0 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.54 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.30 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AFC Eskilstuna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 1.00 / defence 1.35 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 12/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 43% | Draw 25% | AFC Eskilstuna 32%, with Gefle IF to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gefle IF 50%, AFC Eskilstuna 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gefle IF's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gefle IF 1.17 PPG, AFC Eskilstuna 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gefle IF win broke the near-deadlock. Gefle IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.