Orebro SK 2-0 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Orebro SK and Gefle IF meet at Behrn Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Orebro SK (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Orebro SK at Behrn Arena this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.19 xG and Gefle IF 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.814 / defence 0.873 | Gefle IF attack 0.769 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.145. Data: 40 Orebro SK games / 10 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 45% | Draw 32% | Gefle IF 23%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.22 | Draw 3.12 | Gefle IF 4.35. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 45% | Draw 32% | Gefle IF 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Orebro SK 1.19 / Gefle IF 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.814 / def 0.873 | Gefle IF attack 0.769 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Gefle IF xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Gefle IF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Gefle IF kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Gefle IF?
Orebro SK 2 - 0 Gefle IF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Gefle IF part of?
Orebro SK vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 45% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Orebro SK and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Gefle IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and Gefle IF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Orebro SK home split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Gefle IF's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Gefle IF's attack (0.77x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 40/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
45%
2.22
32%
3.14
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
1.96
0.77
Gefle IF xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
7%
14.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.77 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orebro SK won 4-1 on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Gefle IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Orebro SK
0
Draws
2
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 2, Gefle IF have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2024, when Orebro SK 4-1 Gefle IF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Orebro SK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat Gefle IF 2-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.19 xG and Gefle IF 0.77 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.81 / defence 0.87 against Gefle IF attack 0.77 / defence 1.05, drawn from 40/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 45% | Draw 32% | Gefle IF 23%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.