Jonkopings Sodra 3-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Trelleborg travel to Stadsparksvallen to take on Jonkopings Sodra. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 June 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Jonkopings Sodra at Stadsparksvallen this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Jonkopings Sodra) versus 1.20 (Trelleborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jonkopings Sodra register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Trelleborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jonkopings Sodra, 1 for Trelleborg and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2022, ended 3–1 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jonkopings Sodra trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Trelleborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jonkopings Sodra 60% and Trelleborg 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 50% | Trelleborg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 2.11 xG and Trelleborg 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.210 / defence 1.241 | Trelleborg attack 1.123 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.135. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Jonkopings Sodra games / 41 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 50% | Draw 21% | Trelleborg 29%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.00 | Draw 4.76 | Trelleborg 3.45. Jonkopings Sodra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 50% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 70% | Trelleborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Jun 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 50% | Draw 21% | Trelleborg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 2.11 / Trelleborg 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.210 / def 1.241 | Trelleborg attack 1.123 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Trelleborg xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 June 2023 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Jonkopings Sodra 3 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 50% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 29% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg?
Record (4 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 2W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jonkopings Sodra's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Trelleborg's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
50%
2.00
21%
4.78
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
3.70
1.58
Trelleborg xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.31
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
12%
8.27
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
4%
28.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.58 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Jonkopings Sodra have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 19W 17D 24L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Trelleborg's form line: 24W 16D 20L from 60 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.23 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (11W 8D 11L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 9W 10D 11L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Trelleborg in 67%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Trelleborg away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.37 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Jonkopings Sodra
1
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 3, Trelleborg have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 28 September 2023, when Trelleborg 2-1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jonkopings Sodra at 63%, Trelleborg at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 53% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 67% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jonkopings Sodra's matches and 53% of Trelleborg's.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jonkopings Sodra cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Trelleborg 3-1 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 12, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 2.11 xG and Trelleborg 1.58 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.21 / defence 1.24 against Trelleborg attack 1.12 / defence 1.26, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 50% | Draw 21% | Trelleborg 29%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 50%, Trelleborg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.23 PPG, Trelleborg 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jonkopings Sodra win broke the near-deadlock. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.