Vasteras SK FK 1-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK and AIK Stockholm meet at Hitachi Energy Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 August 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vasteras SK FK's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 3W 1D 6L at Hitachi Energy Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
AIK Stockholm (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
AIK Stockholm half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasteras SK FK 39% versus AIK Stockholm 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasteras SK FK 48% | AIK Stockholm 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 1.40 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.653 / defence 1.097 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.892 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.321. Vasteras SK FK's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AIK Stockholm bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Vasteras SK FK games / 46 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 40% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 35%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | AIK Stockholm 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasteras SK FK at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 50% | AIK Stockholm 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 40% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Vasteras SK FK 1.40 / AIK Stockholm 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 0.653 / def 1.097 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.892 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.29
AIK Stockholm xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Vasteras SK FK 1 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Hitachi Energy Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 40% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and AIK Stockholm?
Record (1 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and AIK Stockholm in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — AIK Stockholm's attack (0.89x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
40%
2.53
26%
3.87
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
2.69
1.29
AIK Stockholm xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.29 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 9D 15L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.22 PPG from 46 outings (15W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasteras SK FK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 12W 5D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 0.74 points per game from 23 outings (4W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.30 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 22W 9D 15L in their last 46 games (1.63 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 15W 11D 20L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.78 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Vasteras SK FK or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vasteras SK FK have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Vasteras SK FK won 1-4 on 12 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AIK Stockholm — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
2
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and AIK Stockholm?
From 4 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, AIK Stockholm have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when AIK Stockholm 1-4 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasteras SK FK 35%, AIK Stockholm 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Vasteras SK FK) and 56% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Vasteras SK FK have failed to score in 39% of games; AIK Stockholm in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Vasteras SK FK's recent matches and 61% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Vasteras SK FK's recent games and 56% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasteras SK FK and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AIK Stockholm defy the odds to beat Vasteras SK FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Vasteras SK FK 1-2 at Hitachi Energy Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 1.40 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.29 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 0.65 / defence 1.10 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.89 / defence 1.28, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 40% | Draw 26% | AIK Stockholm 35%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 48%, AIK Stockholm 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with AIK Stockholm winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.