IFK Varnamo 2-4 Sirius – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sirius at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Varnamo vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Sirius travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Varnamo have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Varnamo's home record at Finnvedsvallen: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sirius — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IFK Varnamo 1.40 PPG, Sirius 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IFK Varnamo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sirius in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Sirius 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with IFK Varnamo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
IFK Varnamo trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sirius trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 44% versus Sirius 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 48% | Sirius 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.21 xG and Sirius 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.798 / defence 1.172 | Sirius attack 1.000 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.326. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.21 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 IFK Varnamo games / 46 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 30% | Draw 25% | Sirius 45%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 3.33 | Draw 4.00 | Sirius 2.22. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sirius are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sirius offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IFK Varnamo 60% | Sirius 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 30% | Draw 25% | Sirius 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.21 / Sirius 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.798 / def 1.172 | Sirius attack 1.000 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Sirius (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Sirius xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Sirius kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Sirius kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
IFK Varnamo 2 - 4 Sirius.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Sirius part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 30% chance of winning, Sirius a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Sirius?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Varnamo 2W | Draws 1 | Sirius 2W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Sirius in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Sirius (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.80) and Sirius's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
30%
3.38
25%
3.99
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.76
1.55
Sirius xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
6%
15.96
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.55 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 19W 6D 21L from 46 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 19L across 46 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.37 PPG, Sirius on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 7W 4D 12L from 23 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 8W 6D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.65 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Sirius in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 19W 6D 21L in their last 46 games (1.37 PPG), while Sirius have gone 18W 9D 19L in their last 46 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Sirius away?
Sirius's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.09 PPG; Sirius away: 1.30 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sirius in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sirius have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
5
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Sirius?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Sirius have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Sirius 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 44%, Sirius 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (IFK Varnamo) and 56% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 39% of games; Sirius in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Sirius?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 52% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 56% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Sirius tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sirius in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sirius cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IFK Varnamo 2-4 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.21 xG and Sirius 1.55 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Sirius outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Sirius attack 1.00 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 30% | Draw 25% | Sirius 45%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 48%, Sirius 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.37 PPG, Sirius 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.