Gais 0-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gais at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gais vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 3 August 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gais's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Gais have posted 7W 1D 2L at Gamla Ullevi — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
IFK Norrkoping have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Gais's favour (1.90 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Gais 0W, IFK Norrkoping 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Gais goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 41% versus IFK Norrkoping 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 59% | IFK Norrkoping 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 2.02 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.896 / defence 0.801 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.868 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.321. IFK Norrkoping bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Gais's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Gais games / 46 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 63% | Draw 21% | IFK Norrkoping 16%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | IFK Norrkoping 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Gais (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gais 40% | IFK Norrkoping 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 63% | Draw 21% | IFK Norrkoping 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 52% | xG Gais 2.02 / IFK Norrkoping 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.896 / def 0.801 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.868 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Gais (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.92
IFK Norrkoping xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Gais vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs IFK Norrkoping?
Gais 0 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Gais vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Gais vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 63% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gais and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (1 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 0 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are Gais and IFK Norrkoping in?
Gais (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.90) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 2.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.87x) against Gais's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.8%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.83
16%
6.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Gais xG
Total xG
2.94
0.92
IFK Norrkoping xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
6.15
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
2%
46.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Gais and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Gais and 0.92 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs IFK Norrkoping?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Gais have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 26W 7D 13L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 17W 7D 22L from 46 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gais are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Norrkoping.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gais have posted 2.09 PPG from 23 outings (15W 3D 5L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 6W 5D 12L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gais are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.41 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 63%.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 26W 7D 13L in their last 46 games (1.85 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 17W 7D 22L in their last 46 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Gais's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 2.09 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Gais or IFK Norrkoping been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, IFK Norrkoping in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 4 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gais go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 0-3 on 31 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Gais
0
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IFK Norrkoping?
From 4 meetings on record, Gais have won 2, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2025, when Gais 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 39%, IFK Norrkoping 78% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Gais and 78% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 39% of Gais's games and 78% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gais vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Gais's matches and 78% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Gais and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Norrkoping defy the odds to beat Gais 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Gais 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 2.02 xG and IFK Norrkoping 0.92 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gais fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.90 / defence 0.80 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.87 / defence 1.35, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 63% | Draw 21% | IFK Norrkoping 16%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a IFK Norrkoping win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 59%, IFK Norrkoping 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with IFK Norrkoping winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.