AIK Stockholm 1-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 54%, yet in-form Mjallby AIF provide a compelling counter-argument — this AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Mjallby AIF travel to Strawberry Arena to take on AIK Stockholm. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 August 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Strawberry Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — AIK Stockholm are significantly better at Strawberry Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Mjallby AIF have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mjallby AIF are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AIK Stockholm register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Mjallby AIF in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for AIK Stockholm, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
AIK Stockholm trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 55% versus Mjallby AIF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 53% | Mjallby AIF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.97 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 1.104 / defence 1.044 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.884 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.651 / away 1.359. Data: 47 AIK Stockholm games / 47 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 54% | Draw 22% | Mjallby AIF 24%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Mjallby AIF 4.17. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AIK Stockholm as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 60% | Mjallby AIF 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 54% | Draw 22% | Mjallby AIF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 62% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.97 / Mjallby AIF 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 1.104 / def 1.044 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.884 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.651 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Mjallby AIF xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm 1 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 54% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
Record (6 meetings): AIK Stockholm 2W | Draws 3 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AIK Stockholm's attack at 1.10x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.58
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
3.23
1.25
Mjallby AIF xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
14%
7.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.48
3%
29.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.25 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 11D 20L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.49 PPG from 47 outings (21W 7D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.26 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 11W 6D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — AIK Stockholm are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.52 points per game from 23 outings (11W 2D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.28 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 games (1.26 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 7D 19L in their last 47 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Mjallby AIF away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.70 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AIK Stockholm
3
Draws
2
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 5, Mjallby AIF have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Mjallby AIF 1-2 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 48%, Mjallby AIF 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (AIK Stockholm) and 48% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 30%; Mjallby AIF in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of AIK Stockholm's recent matches and 39% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of AIK Stockholm's recent games and 48% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AIK Stockholm and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AIK Stockholm edge out Mjallby AIF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Mjallby AIF 1-0 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.97 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.25 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AIK Stockholm fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 1.10 / defence 1.04 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 54% | Draw 22% | Mjallby AIF 24%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 53%, Mjallby AIF 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.26 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.