Kalmar FF 1-4 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Hammarby FF travel to Guldfågeln Arena to take on Kalmar FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 August 2024, 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kalmar FF — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Guldfågeln Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hammarby FF are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Kalmar FF, 4 for Hammarby FF and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Hammarby FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 52% versus Hammarby FF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 56% | Hammarby FF 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.07 xG and Hammarby FF 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.856 / defence 1.139 | Hammarby FF attack 0.942 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.355. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Kalmar FF games / 46 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 28% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 46%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Hammarby FF 2.17. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hammarby FF are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Kalmar FF 70% | Hammarby FF 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Aug 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 28% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Kalmar FF 1.07 / Hammarby FF 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.856 / def 1.139 | Hammarby FF attack 0.942 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Hammarby FF xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Kalmar FF 1 - 4 Hammarby FF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 28% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
Record (8 meetings): Kalmar FF 2W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 4W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kalmar FF's attack rating (0.86) and Hammarby FF's defence rating (0.75), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
28%
3.59
26%
3.81
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.52
1.45
Hammarby FF xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
15.35
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.45 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kalmar FF come into this having played 46 games, going 18W 7D 21L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.57 PPG from 46 outings (20W 12D 14L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kalmar FF on 1.33 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kalmar FF's home form reads 10W 4D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (6W 7D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hammarby FF's season.
The Goals Picture
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.46 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 18W 7D 21L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 20W 12D 14L in their last 46 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Hammarby FF away?
Kalmar FF's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.48 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hammarby FF have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Aug 2024, when Hammarby FF won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 2-0 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 52%, Hammarby FF 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Kalmar FF) and 44% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 39%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 26% of games; Hammarby FF in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 35% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 44% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Kalmar FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Kalmar FF 1-4 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.07 xG and Hammarby FF 1.45 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.45 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.86 / defence 1.14 against Hammarby FF attack 0.94 / defence 0.75, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 28% | Draw 26% | Hammarby FF 46%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 56%, Hammarby FF 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kalmar FF 1.33 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hammarby FF win broke the near-deadlock. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.