Mjallby AIF 2-0 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Strandvallen plays host to Mjallby AIF versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 7 November 2020 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mjallby AIF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Strandvallen this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Mjallby AIF, 1.20 for IFK Norrkoping — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Mjallby AIF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, IFK Norrkoping in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mjallby AIF — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 92% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 65% and IFK Norrkoping 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Mjallby AIF 62% | IFK Norrkoping 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.97 xG and IFK Norrkoping 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 1.213 / defence 1.233 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.237 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.141 / away 1.354. IFK Norrkoping bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Mjallby AIF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. IFK Norrkoping have an above-average attack strength of 1.237 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Mjallby AIF games / 26 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 40%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Norrkoping 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.04. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.04 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.04 combined xG gives a 77% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 77%. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 70% | IFK Norrkoping 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2020, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 77% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.97 / IFK Norrkoping 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 1.213 / def 1.233 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.237 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.141 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
2.06
IFK Norrkoping xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 November 2020 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 0 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 36% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (1.24x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
36%
2.75
24%
4.25
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
4.04
2.06
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.31
23%
BTTS No
4.28
Clean Sheet
13%
7.89
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
5%
21.66
6%
17.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 7.1 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 2.06 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 4.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 9W 8D 9L from 26 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 11W 7D 8L across 26 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-L-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.35 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.54 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 6W 4D 3L from 13 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 6W 2D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 2.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mjallby AIF have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; IFK Norrkoping in 81%.
Last 26 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 9W 8D 9L in their last 26 games (1.35 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 11W 7D 8L in their last 26 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.69 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mjallby AIF
4
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 4, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Mjallby AIF, 92% for IFK Norrkoping — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Mjallby AIF and 85% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Mjallby AIF's games and 92% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Mjallby AIF's matches and 85% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Mjallby AIF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat IFK Norrkoping 2-0 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.97 xG and IFK Norrkoping 2.06 xG, a combined 4.04. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 1.21 / defence 1.23 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.24 / defence 1.42, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 36% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 40%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 62%, IFK Norrkoping 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.35 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.