AIK Stockholm 2-0 Gais – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gais at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AIK Stockholm vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 13 as AIK Stockholm welcome Gais to Strawberry Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 July 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AIK Stockholm — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm at Strawberry Arena this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Gais have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Gais's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of AIK Stockholm's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. AIK Stockholm register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gais in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for AIK Stockholm, 2 for Gais and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Gais in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AIK Stockholm 55% versus Gais 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AIK Stockholm 55% | Gais 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AIK Stockholm 1.23 xG and Gais 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AIK Stockholm attack 0.805 / defence 1.131 | Gais attack 0.870 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.690 / away 1.410. Data: 42 AIK Stockholm games / 43 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 32% | Draw 29% | Gais 39%. Fair-value odds: AIK Stockholm 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Gais 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gais offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AIK Stockholm 60% | Gais 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AIK Stockholm vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Strawberry Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AIK Stockholm 32% | Draw 29% | Gais 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG AIK Stockholm 1.23 / Gais 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: AIK Stockholm attack 0.805 / def 1.131 | Gais attack 0.870 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.690 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Gais (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
AIK Stockholm xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Gais xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AIK Stockholm vs Gais kick off?
AIK Stockholm vs Gais kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 July 2026 at Strawberry Arena.
What was the final score in AIK Stockholm vs Gais?
AIK Stockholm 2 - 0 Gais.
Where is AIK Stockholm vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Strawberry Arena.
What competition is AIK Stockholm vs Gais part of?
AIK Stockholm vs Gais is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win AIK Stockholm vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives AIK Stockholm a 32% chance of winning, Gais a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in AIK Stockholm vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AIK Stockholm and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will AIK Stockholm vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Gais?
Record (4 meetings): AIK Stockholm 1W | Draws 1 | Gais 2W.
What form are AIK Stockholm and Gais in?
AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Gais (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AIK Stockholm's attack rating (0.81) and Gais's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus AIK Stockholm's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
32%
3.15
29%
3.47
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
AIK Stockholm xG
Total xG
2.61
1.39
Gais xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.60
12%
8.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AIK Stockholm vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are AIK Stockholm and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for AIK Stockholm and 1.39 for Gais, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for AIK Stockholm vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AIK Stockholm come into this having played 42 games, going 18W 12D 12L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.69 PPG from 42 outings (19W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AIK Stockholm on 1.57 PPG, Gais on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
AIK Stockholm's home form reads 9W 6D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 1.40 points per game from 20 outings (7W 7D 6L).
The Goals Picture
AIK Stockholm are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.50 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AIK Stockholm
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AIK Stockholm and Gais in coming into this match?
AIK Stockholm have gone 18W 12D 12L in their last 42 games (1.57 PPG), while Gais have gone 19W 14D 9L in their last 42 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AIK Stockholm at home or Gais away?
AIK Stockholm's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AIK Stockholm at home: 1.65 PPG; Gais away: 1.40 PPG.
Have AIK Stockholm or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
AIK Stockholm have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gais in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AIK Stockholm and Gais runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
AIK Stockholm's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
AIK Stockholm
1
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AIK Stockholm and Gais?
From 5 meetings on record, AIK Stockholm have won 2, Gais have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AIK Stockholm and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when AIK Stockholm 2-0 Gais.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AIK Stockholm 45%, Gais 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (AIK Stockholm) and 60% (Gais). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AIK Stockholm keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; AIK Stockholm have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AIK Stockholm home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AIK Stockholm play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of AIK Stockholm's games and 65% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AIK Stockholm vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of AIK Stockholm's matches and 60% of Gais's.
Do AIK Stockholm and Gais tend to score early?
AIK Stockholm have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Gais in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AIK Stockholm cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Gais.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Gais 2-0 at Strawberry Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AIK Stockholm 1.23 xG and Gais 1.39 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gais landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AIK Stockholm attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Gais attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AIK Stockholm 32% | Draw 29% | Gais 39%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual AIK Stockholm win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AIK Stockholm 55%, Gais 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gais's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AIK Stockholm 1.57 PPG, Gais 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Gais (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.