Mjallby AIF 2-2 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF host Varbergs BoIS FC at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 3 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mjallby AIF — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 2W 4D 4L at Strandvallen — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Varbergs BoIS FC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mjallby AIF at 1.20 PPG versus Varbergs BoIS FC's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Mjallby AIF, 2 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2022, ended 4–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mjallby AIF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 42% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 35% | Varbergs BoIS FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.67 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.990 / defence 1.061 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.024 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Mjallby AIF games / 30 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Varbergs BoIS FC 3.33. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 90% | Varbergs BoIS FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.67 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.990 / def 1.061 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.024 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 3 April 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 2 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 46% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (6 meetings): Mjallby AIF 2W | Draws 2 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mjallby AIF's attack at 0.99x the league average against Varbergs BoIS FC's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.17
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.97
1.31
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
6%
17.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.31 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 21D 19L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Varbergs BoIS FC sit at 1.22 PPG from 60 outings (19W 16D 25L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mjallby AIF on 1.35 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 10W 11D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Varbergs BoIS FC have taken 1.10 points per game from 30 outings (9W 6D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.15 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
Varbergs BoIS FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 20W 21D 19L in their last 60 games (1.35 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 19W 16D 25L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.37 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Varbergs BoIS FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Varbergs BoIS FC in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Mjallby AIF won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2023, when Varbergs BoIS FC 0-3 Mjallby AIF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 50%, Varbergs BoIS FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Mjallby AIF) and 67% (Varbergs BoIS FC).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Mjallby AIF have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Mjallby AIF's games and 70% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 67% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 1, as Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.67 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 46% | Draw 24% | Varbergs BoIS FC 30%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 35%, Varbergs BoIS FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 1.35 PPG, Varbergs BoIS FC 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.