Hammarby FF 3-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hammarby FF at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Degerfors IF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 3W 7D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 1.60 (Degerfors IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hammarby FF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Degerfors IF in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Hammarby FF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Degerfors IF, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2022, ended 5–1 with Hammarby FF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hammarby FF and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 53% versus Degerfors IF 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.87 xG and Degerfors IF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.151 / defence 0.965 | Degerfors IF attack 0.998 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.260. Data: 30 Hammarby FF games / 30 Degerfors IF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 53% | Draw 23% | Degerfors IF 25%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Degerfors IF 4.00. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 60% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 53% | Draw 23% | Degerfors IF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 59% | xG Hammarby FF 1.87 / Degerfors IF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.151 / def 0.965 | Degerfors IF attack 0.998 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Degerfors IF xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Hammarby FF 3 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 53% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
Record (4 meetings): Hammarby FF 4W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.15x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.42
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.08
1.21
Degerfors IF xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
15%
6.48
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
4%
26.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.21 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 31W 16D 13L from 60 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 29L across 60 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 20W 8D 2L from 30 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 5W 7D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.10 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 31W 16D 13L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.27 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Hammarby FF won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 60%, Degerfors IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Hammarby FF) and 50% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hammarby FF's games and 53% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hammarby FF's matches and 50% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Degerfors IF 3-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.87 xG and Degerfors IF 1.21 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.15 / defence 0.96 against Degerfors IF attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 53% | Draw 23% | Degerfors IF 25%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 57%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.