Djurgardens IF 0-1 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Djurgardens IF at Tele2 Arena this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Djurgardens IF. A 0.70 PPG lead over Mjallby AIF (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Djurgardens IF lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Mjallby AIF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 39% versus Mjallby AIF 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | Mjallby AIF 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.64 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.343 / defence 0.776 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.899 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.257. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — their λ of 1.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Djurgardens IF games / 59 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 53% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 18%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Mjallby AIF 5.56. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 30% | Mjallby AIF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 53% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.64 / Mjallby AIF 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.343 / def 0.776 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.899 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Mjallby AIF xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 1 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 53% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Djurgardens IF's attack at 1.34x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.90x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
53%
1.88
29%
3.48
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.51
0.88
Mjallby AIF xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
4%
28.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.88 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 59 games, going 34W 12D 13L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.32 PPG from 59 outings (19W 21D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 21W 3D 5L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.28 points per game from 29 outings (9W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.12 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Mjallby AIF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 34W 12D 13L in their last 59 games (1.93 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 19W 21D 19L in their last 59 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.28 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
3
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 48%, Mjallby AIF 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 76% (Djurgardens IF) and 31% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 41%; Mjallby AIF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 34% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 76% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 31% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Djurgardens IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Djurgardens IF 0-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.64 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.88 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.34 / defence 0.78 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.90 / defence 0.83, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 53% | Draw 29% | Mjallby AIF 18%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Mjallby AIF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, Mjallby AIF 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Mjallby AIF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.