IF Elfsborg 0-2 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees BK Hacken travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 April 2023, 18:10 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Borås Arena, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Borås Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 5W 5D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
BK Hacken's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
IF Elfsborg are in the better shape of the two on current Allsvenskan data — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 2.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for IF Elfsborg, 0 for BK Hacken and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 4–4 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Elfsborg 50% and BK Hacken 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 57% | BK Hacken 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.52 xG and BK Hacken 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.085 / defence 0.993 | BK Hacken attack 1.121 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.232. Data: 30 IF Elfsborg games / 30 BK Hacken games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 41% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 34%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | BK Hacken 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 70% | BK Hacken 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 3 Apr 2023, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 41% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.52 / BK Hacken 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.085 / def 0.993 | BK Hacken attack 1.121 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.37
BK Hacken xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 3 April 2023 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 2 BK Hacken.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken part of?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 41% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
Record (3 meetings): IF Elfsborg 1W | Draws 2 | BK Hacken 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.08) and BK Hacken's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.05
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.37
BK Hacken xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
10%
9.60
7%
13.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.37 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 30W 14D 16L from 60 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 27W 19D 14L across 60 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.73 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 16W 8D 6L from 30 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 12W 12D 6L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.92 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 75%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 30W 14D 16L in their last 60 games (1.73 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or BK Hacken away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.87 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.60 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IF Elfsborg
3
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 3, BK Hacken have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — IF Elfsborg at 53%, BK Hacken at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for IF Elfsborg and 57% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of IF Elfsborg's games and 77% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 57% of BK Hacken's.
Do IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IF Elfsborg 0-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.52 xG and BK Hacken 1.37 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.08 / defence 0.99 against BK Hacken attack 1.12 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 41% | Draw 25% | BK Hacken 34%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual BK Hacken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 57%, BK Hacken 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.73 PPG, BK Hacken 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.