Djurgardens IF 3-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host IF Brommapojkarna at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 7W 0D 3L at Tele2 Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.88 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.072 / defence 0.937 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.260. Data: 30 Djurgardens IF games / 0 IF Brommapojkarna games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 20%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | IF Brommapojkarna 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.88 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.072 / def 0.937 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.00
IF Brommapojkarna xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Djurgardens IF 3 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 58% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Djurgardens IF home split: 2.10 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
58%
1.73
22%
4.49
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.89
1.00
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.73
58%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
15%
6.58
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
3%
33.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.00 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2024, when Djurgardens IF won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
0
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and IF Brommapojkarna?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.88 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 58% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 20%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.