IFK Varnamo 0-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Varnamo at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sirius travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Monday 25 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, IFK Varnamo have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IFK Varnamo's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sirius — last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sirius away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
IFK Varnamo are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, IFK Varnamo have won 1, Sirius 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Jun 2023, ended IFK Varnamo 0–2 Sirius — a Sirius win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
IFK Varnamo trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sirius trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 49% versus Sirius 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 47% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.04 xG and Sirius 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.656 / defence 0.809 | Sirius attack 0.926 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.261. IFK Varnamo's attack rating of 0.656 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from IFK Varnamo's last 53 games and Sirius's last 53.
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 37% | Draw 31% | Sirius 32%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Sirius 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IFK Varnamo are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (IFK Varnamo's last 10 home games and Sirius's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IFK Varnamo 30% (last 10 home games) | Sirius 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 24 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Monday 25 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 37% | Draw 31% | Sirius 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG IFK Varnamo 1.04 / Sirius 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.656 / def 0.809 | Sirius attack 0.926 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Sirius xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Sirius FAQs
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Sirius kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Sirius kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 25 September 2023 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 1 Sirius.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Sirius part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Sirius is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 24) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 37% chance of winning, Sirius a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Sirius will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IFK Varnamo's attack rating (0.66) and Sirius's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Varnamo's last 53 games and Sirius's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.23
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
1.98
0.94
Sirius xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.53
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Sirius Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 0.94 for Sirius, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IFK Varnamo's recent record stands at 19W 12D 22L from 53 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Sirius, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 25L across 53 games — 1.09 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.30 PPG, Sirius on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IFK Varnamo have managed 9W 7D 10L from their last 26 home games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sirius's away record stands at 5W 10D 11L across their last 26 away games, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.25 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Sirius
Blended
IFK Varnamo (Home) vs Sirius (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Sirius Form FAQs
What form are IFK Varnamo and Sirius in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 19W 12D 22L in their last 53 games (1.30 PPG), while Sirius have gone 15W 13D 25L in their last 53 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Sirius away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.31 PPG; Sirius away: 0.96 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sirius in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2022. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 9 November 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sirius have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
1
Draws
5
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Sirius H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Sirius?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Sirius have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Sirius last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 November 2025: Sirius 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 46%, Sirius 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (IFK Varnamo) and 54% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 31% of games; Sirius in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Varnamo vs Sirius Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Varnamo and Sirius matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 46% of Sirius's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IFK Varnamo and Sirius matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 54% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Sirius matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 69% of Sirius's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sirius defy the odds to beat IFK Varnamo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat IFK Varnamo 0-1 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.04 xG and Sirius 0.94 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Varnamo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.66 / defence 0.81 against Sirius attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 37% | Draw 31% | Sirius 32%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sirius win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 47%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sirius's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.30 PPG, Sirius 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward. Sirius (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.