Orebro SK 0-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Orebro SK at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 27 as Orebro SK welcome Kalmar FF to Behrn Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 November 2020 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orebro SK have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orebro SK have posted 7W 1D 2L at Behrn Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Kalmar FF have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Orebro SK carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Orebro SK have won 1, Kalmar FF 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2020, ended 3–0 with Orebro SK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Orebro SK in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Kalmar FF in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 58% versus Kalmar FF 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 58% | Kalmar FF 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.97 xG and Kalmar FF 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.209 / defence 1.287 | Kalmar FF attack 0.885 / defence 1.425. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.349. Kalmar FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.425 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Orebro SK games / 26 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 46% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 28%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Kalmar FF 3.57. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.50. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.50 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orebro SK are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.50 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Orebro SK 80% | Kalmar FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2020, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 46% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Orebro SK 1.97 / Kalmar FF 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 1.209 / def 1.287 | Kalmar FF attack 0.885 / def 1.425 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Kalmar FF xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 November 2020 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF?
Orebro SK 0 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF part of?
Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 46% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Orebro SK and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Kalmar FF?
Record (1 meetings): Orebro SK 1W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and Kalmar FF in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Kalmar FF (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 1.21x the league average against Kalmar FF's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.91
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
3.50
1.54
Kalmar FF xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
14%
7.15
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
4%
25.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.1 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.54 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Orebro SK's recent record stands at 10W 6D 10L from 26 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 4W 9D 13L across 26 games — 0.81 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Orebro SK by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kalmar FF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Orebro SK have managed 7W 3D 3L from 13 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across 13 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orebro SK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Orebro SK are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.08 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 10W 6D 10L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 4W 9D 13L in their last 26 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Kalmar FF away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.85 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Orebro SK and Kalmar FF runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 30 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2020, when Orebro SK won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Orebro SK
1
Draws
4
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Kalmar FF?
From 6 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 1, Kalmar FF have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2025, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 62%, Kalmar FF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Orebro SK and 62% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Orebro SK's games and 62% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orebro SK vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Orebro SK's matches and 62% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Orebro SK and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kalmar FF defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Orebro SK 0-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.97 xG and Kalmar FF 1.54 xG, a combined 3.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Orebro SK fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 1.21 / defence 1.29 against Kalmar FF attack 0.89 / defence 1.43, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 46% | Draw 26% | Kalmar FF 28%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Kalmar FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 58%, Kalmar FF 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Orebro SK arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Kalmar FF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.