Kalmar FF 0-1 Malmo FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Malmo FF at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 1 as Kalmar FF welcome Malmo FF to Guldfågeln Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kalmar FF — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Kalmar FF's home record at Guldfågeln Arena: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Malmo FF have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Malmo FF's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Kalmar FF's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Malmo FF have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Kalmar FF.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Malmo FF winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Malmo FF have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Kalmar FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Malmo FF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kalmar FF 52% versus Malmo FF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kalmar FF 48% | Malmo FF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kalmar FF 1.31 xG and Malmo FF 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kalmar FF attack 0.972 / defence 0.973 | Malmo FF attack 1.091 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.247. Data: 30 Kalmar FF games / 30 Malmo FF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Kalmar FF 37% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 37%. Fair-value odds: Kalmar FF 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Malmo FF 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Kalmar FF 50% | Malmo FF 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Guldfågeln Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kalmar FF 37% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Kalmar FF 1.31 / Malmo FF 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Kalmar FF attack 0.972 / def 0.973 | Malmo FF attack 1.091 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.247 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Kalmar FF xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Malmo FF xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF kick off?
Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Guldfågeln Arena.
What was the final score in Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF?
Kalmar FF 0 - 1 Malmo FF.
Where is Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF being played?
The match is being played at Guldfågeln Arena.
What competition is Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF part of?
Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF?
Our statistical model gives Kalmar FF a 37% chance of winning, Malmo FF a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Kalmar FF and Malmo FF will score (BTTS).
Will Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Malmo FF?
Record (3 meetings): Kalmar FF 0W | Draws 0 | Malmo FF 3W.
What form are Kalmar FF and Malmo FF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Malmo FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kalmar FF's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Malmo FF's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Malmo FF's attack versus Kalmar FF's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Malmo FF Win
37%
2.73
26%
3.82
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Kalmar FF xG
Total xG
2.64
1.32
Malmo FF xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
10%
10.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Kalmar FF and Malmo FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Kalmar FF and 1.32 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Kalmar FF have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 20W 18D 22L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Malmo FF's form line: 34W 17D 9L from 60 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Malmo FF are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kalmar FF.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Kalmar FF have posted 1.07 PPG from 30 outings (7W 11D 12L).
On the road, Malmo FF have gone 15W 8D 7L from 30 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Malmo FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kalmar FF are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Malmo FF are on 2.03 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Malmo FF in 60%.
Defensively: Malmo FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kalmar FF
Current Season
Malmo FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kalmar FF and Malmo FF in coming into this match?
Kalmar FF have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Malmo FF have gone 34W 17D 9L in their last 60 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kalmar FF at home or Malmo FF away?
Malmo FF's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kalmar FF at home: 1.07 PPG; Malmo FF away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Kalmar FF or Malmo FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kalmar FF have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Malmo FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kalmar FF and Malmo FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 20 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 May 2024, when Malmo FF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kalmar FF's record when hosting Malmo FF specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Kalmar FF
2
Draws
6
Malmo FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kalmar FF and Malmo FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Kalmar FF have won 2, Malmo FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kalmar FF and Malmo FF last play each other?
They last met on 20 July 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-2 Malmo FF.
Who has won more matches between Kalmar FF and Malmo FF?
Malmo FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kalmar FF see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Malmo FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kalmar FF 47%, Malmo FF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Kalmar FF) and 60% (Malmo FF).
On the defensive side: Malmo FF in 37%; Kalmar FF have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kalmar FF home games / Malmo FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kalmar FF play Malmo FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Kalmar FF's recent matches and 60% of Malmo FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kalmar FF vs Malmo FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Kalmar FF's recent games and 60% of Malmo FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kalmar FF and Malmo FF tend to score early?
Kalmar FF have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Malmo FF in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Malmo FF edge out Kalmar FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Malmo FF beat Kalmar FF 0-1 at Guldfågeln Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kalmar FF 1.31 xG and Malmo FF 1.32 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kalmar FF fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kalmar FF attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Malmo FF attack 1.09 / defence 0.86, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kalmar FF 37% | Draw 26% | Malmo FF 37%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Malmo FF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kalmar FF 48%, Malmo FF 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Malmo FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Malmo FF arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Malmo FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.