Sirius 2-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sirius at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sirius host GIF Sundsvall at Studenternas IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sirius — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sirius have posted 4W 1D 5L at Studenternas IP — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 1.89 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.026 / defence 1.032 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.252. Data: 30 Sirius games / 0 GIF Sundsvall games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sirius 56% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 22%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | GIF Sundsvall 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 56% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Sirius 1.89 / GIF Sundsvall 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.026 / def 1.032 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Sirius (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall?
Sirius 2 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 56% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sirius and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and GIF Sundsvall?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sirius and GIF Sundsvall in?
Sirius (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Sirius home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sirius's attack rating (1.03) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Sirius's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.48
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Sirius xG
Total xG
2.99
1.10
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
3%
30.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sirius and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Sirius and 1.10 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Pre-Season
GIF Sundsvall
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Sirius
0
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, Sirius have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 30 October 2022, when GIF Sundsvall 2-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and GIF Sundsvall?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Sirius edge out GIF Sundsvall 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat GIF Sundsvall 2-1 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 1.89 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.10 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 56% | Draw 22% | GIF Sundsvall 22%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.