Djurgardens IF 3-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Monday 4 April 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Djurgardens IF's home record at Tele2 Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Degerfors IF (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Degerfors IF have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Djurgardens IF, 1.60 for Degerfors IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Djurgardens IF, 1 for Degerfors IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2021, ended 3–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 40% versus Degerfors IF 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 47% | Degerfors IF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.62 xG and Degerfors IF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.101 / defence 1.052 | Degerfors IF attack 0.924 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 1.250. Data: 30 Djurgardens IF games / 30 Degerfors IF games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 29%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Degerfors IF 3.45. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 70% | Degerfors IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.62 / Degerfors IF 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.101 / def 1.052 | Degerfors IF attack 0.924 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.412 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Degerfors IF xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 4 April 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Djurgardens IF 3 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 47% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF?
Record (2 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.10) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.92x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
47%
2.14
25%
4.08
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.83
1.22
Degerfors IF xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
6%
17.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.22 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 30 games, going 17W 6D 7L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.13 PPG from 30 outings (10W 4D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 10W 2D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (3W 3D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.13 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 17W 6D 7L in their last 30 games (1.90 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 10W 4D 16L in their last 30 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.13 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 5-1 on 6 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Djurgardens IF
1
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 5, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 53%, Degerfors IF 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Djurgardens IF) and 47% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 40% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 47% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Degerfors IF 3-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.62 xG and Degerfors IF 1.22 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.10 / defence 1.05 against Degerfors IF attack 0.92 / defence 1.04, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 47% | Draw 25% | Degerfors IF 29%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 47%, Degerfors IF 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.