IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Orgryte IS travel to Grimsta IP to take on IF Brommapojkarna. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's home record at Grimsta IP: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Orgryte IS have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Brommapojkarna 1.00 PPG, Orgryte IS 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Orgryte IS 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 2–1 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 74% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 59% versus Orgryte IS 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 56% | Orgryte IS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.73 xG and Orgryte IS 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.805 / defence 1.032 | Orgryte IS attack 0.730 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.346. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing IF Brommapojkarna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 IF Brommapojkarna games / 16 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 53% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 20%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Orgryte IS 5.00. IF Brommapojkarna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Brommapojkarna 80% | Orgryte IS 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 53% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.73 / Orgryte IS 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.805 / def 1.032 | Orgryte IS attack 0.730 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Orgryte IS xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS?
IF Brommapojkarna 3 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 53% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Orgryte IS?
Record (3 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 2W | Draws 1 | Orgryte IS 0W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Orgryte IS in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Orgryte IS's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.73. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.69
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.75
1.01
Orgryte IS xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
4%
27.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.01 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 13W 10D 23L record — L-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS's form line: 19W 12D 15L from 46 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Orgryte IS are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Brommapojkarna.
Venue Form
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 0.82 PPG from 22 outings (5W 3D 14L).
On the road, Orgryte IS have gone 9W 5D 8L from 22 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Orgryte IS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.67 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 13W 10D 23L in their last 46 games (1.07 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 19W 12D 15L in their last 46 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Orgryte IS away?
Orgryte IS's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 0.82 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.45 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
IF Brommapojkarna have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
0
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Orgryte IS?
From 4 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 3, Orgryte IS have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 3-1 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Orgryte IS?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 59%, Orgryte IS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 50% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 27% of games; Orgryte IS in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 46% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent games and 50% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Brommapojkarna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Orgryte IS 3-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.73 xG and Orgryte IS 1.01 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.81 / defence 1.03 against Orgryte IS attack 0.73 / defence 1.30, drawn from 46/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 53% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 20%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 56%, Orgryte IS 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Orgryte IS arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with IF Brommapojkarna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.