Mjallby AIF 4-3 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs Sirius encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Sirius meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Strandvallen, Mjallby AIF have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
Sirius (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sirius, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sirius's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sirius are 1.60 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF in recent Allsvenskan fixtures (2.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Mjallby AIF have had the better of this match-up — 7 wins from 9 meetings, with Sirius managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2026, ended 4–4 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Mjallby AIF and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.7 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Sirius goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mjallby AIF 51% and Sirius 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 44% | Sirius 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.84 xG and Sirius 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.652 / defence 0.847 | Sirius attack 1.407 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.330. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sirius have an above-average attack strength of 1.407 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Mjallby AIF games / 46 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 18% | Draw 29% | Sirius 53%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 5.56 | Draw 3.45 | Sirius 1.89. Sirius hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Mjallby AIF dominate the H2H record, yet Sirius are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sirius if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 20% | Sirius 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 18% | Draw 29% | Sirius 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.84 / Sirius 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.652 / def 0.847 | Sirius attack 1.407 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Sirius (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Sirius xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Sirius kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Sirius kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Mjallby AIF 4 - 3 Sirius.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 18% chance of winning, Sirius a 53% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
Record (9 meetings): Mjallby AIF 7W | Draws 2 | Sirius 0W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Sirius in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Sirius (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (0.65) and Sirius's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sirius's attack (1.41x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
18%
5.52
29%
3.45
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.43
1.58
Sirius xG
5.52
18%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
4%
26.94
23%
4.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 14.0 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.58 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Mjallby AIF have picked up 2.04 PPG on a 27W 11D 7L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sirius's form line: 23W 9D 13L from 45 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Sirius is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.04 PPG for Mjallby AIF against 1.73 for Sirius. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Mjallby AIF have posted 2.00 PPG from 22 outings (13W 5D 4L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 10W 5D 7L from 22 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mjallby AIF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 2.11 scored and 1.53 conceded. Sirius's attacking output running into Mjallby AIF's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius in 73%.
Defensively: Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Sirius
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Sirius in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 27W 11D 7L in their last 45 games (2.04 PPG), while Sirius have gone 23W 9D 13L in their last 45 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Sirius away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 2.00 PPG; Sirius away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Sirius in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sirius — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Mjallby AIF
2
Draws
0
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 8, Sirius have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Mjallby AIF 4-3 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Sirius?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 41%, Sirius 82% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Mjallby AIF) and 77% (Sirius).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Mjallby AIF's games and 82% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 77% of Sirius's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Sirius tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Sirius in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat Sirius 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat Sirius 4-3 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.84 xG and Sirius 1.58 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sirius outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.65 / defence 0.85 against Sirius attack 1.41 / defence 0.80, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 18% | Draw 29% | Sirius 53%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Mjallby AIF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 44%, Sirius 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Sirius's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mjallby AIF 2.04 PPG, Sirius 1.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mjallby AIF win broke the near-deadlock. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.