Degerfors IF 3-0 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 43%, yet in-form IFK Goteborg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg meet at Stora Valla in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, IFK Goteborg have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, IFK Goteborg are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
IFK Goteborg hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with IFK Goteborg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. IFK Goteborg have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 52% versus IFK Goteborg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 54% | IFK Goteborg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.64 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.695 / defence 1.046 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.958 / defence 1.424. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.346. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 1.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IFK Goteborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.424 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Degerfors IF games / 46 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | IFK Goteborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Goteborg (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 50% | IFK Goteborg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Degerfors IF 1.64 / IFK Goteborg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.695 / def 1.046 | IFK Goteborg attack 0.958 / def 1.424 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.35
IFK Goteborg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Degerfors IF 3 - 0 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 43% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg?
Record (9 meetings): Degerfors IF 2W | Draws 0 | IFK Goteborg 7W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.69) and IFK Goteborg's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Goteborg's attack (0.96x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.65
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.99
1.35
IFK Goteborg xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
6%
17.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.35 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 46 games, going 11W 10D 25L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IFK Goteborg sit at 1.52 PPG from 46 outings (21W 7D 18L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 2W 7D 14L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.57 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Goteborg have taken 1.61 points per game from 23 outings (11W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Goteborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.37 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 11W 10D 25L in their last 46 games (0.93 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 21W 7D 18L in their last 46 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
IFK Goteborg's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 0.57 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 6-0 on 4 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Goteborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
7
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, IFK Goteborg have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Degerfors IF 3-0 IFK Goteborg.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 44%, IFK Goteborg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Degerfors IF) and 56% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: IFK Goteborg in 30%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 52% of games; IFK Goteborg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 44% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 56% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Degerfors IF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IFK Goteborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat IFK Goteborg 3-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.64 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.35 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IFK Goteborg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.69 / defence 1.05 against IFK Goteborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.42, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 43% | Draw 27% | IFK Goteborg 30%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 54%, IFK Goteborg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Goteborg arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.