Djurgardens IF 1-3 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host AIK Stockholm at 3Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 August 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 5W 2D 3L at 3Arena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Djurgardens IF) versus 1.70 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
AIK Stockholm have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 9 encounters against Djurgardens IF's 2 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 4–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
It is worth noting that AIK Stockholm have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 49% versus AIK Stockholm 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 44% | AIK Stockholm 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.06 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.423 / defence 0.852 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.164 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.346. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — their λ of 2.06 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Djurgardens IF games / 46 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 53% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 23%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | AIK Stockholm 4.35. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.40 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 50% | AIK Stockholm 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 53% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.06 / AIK Stockholm 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.423 / def 0.852 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.164 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.33
AIK Stockholm xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 3Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 3 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 53% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (9 meetings): Djurgardens IF 2W | Draws 2 | AIK Stockholm 5W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.17
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.40
1.33
AIK Stockholm xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.92
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
3%
34.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.33 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 21W 12D 12L record — W-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 19W 13D 13L from 45 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.67 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (10W 8D 5L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 9W 7D 7L from 23 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 21W 12D 12L in their last 45 games (1.67 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 19W 13D 13L in their last 45 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.65 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Djurgardens IF 1-3 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 56%, AIK Stockholm 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Djurgardens IF) and 56% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play AIK Stockholm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Djurgardens IF's games and 65% of AIK Stockholm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 56% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AIK Stockholm cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AIK Stockholm beat Djurgardens IF 1-3 at 3Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.06 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.33 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. AIK Stockholm outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.42 / defence 0.85 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.16 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 53% | Draw 24% | AIK Stockholm 23%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a AIK Stockholm win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 44%, AIK Stockholm 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.67 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AIK Stockholm win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.