Hammarby FF 0-2 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 15 as Hammarby FF welcome IF Elfsborg to Tele2 Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 4W 5D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Hammarby FF) versus 2.00 (IF Elfsborg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hammarby FF register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, IF Elfsborg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Hammarby FF trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hammarby FF 68% and IF Elfsborg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 61% | IF Elfsborg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.42 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.303 / defence 1.065 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.040 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.108. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. IF Elfsborg's defence strength of 0.755 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Hammarby FF games / 44 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 31% | IF Elfsborg 30%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | IF Elfsborg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 80% | IF Elfsborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 31% | IF Elfsborg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Hammarby FF 1.42 / IF Elfsborg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.303 / def 1.065 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.040 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.23
IF Elfsborg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF 0 - 2 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 39% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (1.30x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
39%
2.58
31%
3.20
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.65
1.23
IF Elfsborg xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
11%
8.79
7%
13.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.23 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, Hammarby FF have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 16W 16D 12L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 20W 17D 7L from 44 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.45 PPG, IF Elfsborg on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hammarby FF have posted 1.57 PPG from 21 outings (7W 12D 2L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 9W 8D 4L from 21 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.61 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 16W 16D 12L in their last 44 games (1.45 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 20W 17D 7L in their last 44 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.57 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 6, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 71%, IF Elfsborg 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Hammarby FF) and 43% (IF Elfsborg).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Hammarby FF's games and 57% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 43% of IF Elfsborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Hammarby FF 0-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.42 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.30 / defence 1.06 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.04 / defence 0.76, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 39% | Draw 31% | IF Elfsborg 30%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual IF Elfsborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 61%, IF Elfsborg 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.45 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IF Elfsborg win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.