IF Elfsborg 2-2 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 16 as IF Elfsborg welcome Hammarby FF to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Hammarby FF — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IF Elfsborg 58% and Hammarby FF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 51% | Hammarby FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.40 xG and Hammarby FF 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.155 / defence 0.945 | Hammarby FF attack 1.004 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.098. Data: 45 IF Elfsborg games / 45 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 43% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 26%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Hammarby FF 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 50% | Hammarby FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 43% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.40 / Hammarby FF 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.155 / def 0.945 | Hammarby FF attack 1.004 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Hammarby FF xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 2 Hammarby FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 43% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.16x the league average against Hammarby FF's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
43%
2.31
31%
3.26
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.44
1.04
Hammarby FF xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.55
6%
15.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.04 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 45 games, going 21W 17D 7L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hammarby FF sit at 1.42 PPG from 45 outings (16W 16D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.78 PPG, Hammarby FF on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 11W 8D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Hammarby FF have taken 1.27 points per game from 22 outings (8W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.60 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hammarby FF in 67%.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 21W 17D 7L in their last 45 games (1.78 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 16W 16D 13L in their last 45 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.86 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.27 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 5 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jul 2022, when Hammarby FF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
6
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Hammarby FF have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 5 July 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-2 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 59%, Hammarby FF 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for IF Elfsborg and 77% for Hammarby FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Hammarby FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of IF Elfsborg's games and 68% of Hammarby FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 77% of Hammarby FF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and Hammarby FF finished level at 2-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.40 xG and Hammarby FF 1.04 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hammarby FF outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against Hammarby FF attack 1.00 / defence 0.86, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 43% | Draw 31% | Hammarby FF 26%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 51%, Hammarby FF 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.78 PPG, Hammarby FF 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.