Ostersunds FK 1-2 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jämtkraft Arena plays host to Ostersunds FK versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 15 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ostersunds FK have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ostersunds FK's home record at Jämtkraft Arena: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
IFK Norrkoping arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ostersunds FK 0W, IFK Norrkoping 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ostersunds FK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
IFK Norrkoping goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 43% versus IFK Norrkoping 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 52% | IFK Norrkoping 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.28 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 1.020 / defence 1.151 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.048 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.108. Data: 44 Ostersunds FK games / 44 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 32% | IFK Norrkoping 36%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | IFK Norrkoping 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Ostersunds FK 50% | IFK Norrkoping 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 32% | IFK Norrkoping 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.28 / IFK Norrkoping 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 1.020 / def 1.151 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.048 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.34
IFK Norrkoping xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Ostersunds FK 1 - 2 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 33% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (2 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | IFK Norrkoping 1W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ostersunds FK's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against IFK Norrkoping's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (1.05x) against Ostersunds FK's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 1-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
33%
3.05
32%
3.16
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
2.62
1.34
IFK Norrkoping xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.34 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ostersunds FK's recent record stands at 10W 12D 22L from 44 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Norrkoping, meanwhile, have gone 19W 9D 16L across 44 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IFK Norrkoping by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ostersunds FK heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ostersunds FK have managed 4W 5D 13L from 22 games — 0.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Norrkoping's away record stands at 10W 2D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Norrkoping come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.77 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping in 70%.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 10W 12D 22L in their last 44 games (0.95 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 19W 9D 16L in their last 44 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Norrkoping's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.77 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 21 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
IFK Norrkoping go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Norrkoping won 3-0 on 29 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ostersunds FK have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Ostersunds FK
1
Draws
4
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping?
From 5 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 0, IFK Norrkoping have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 21 June 2026, when Ostersunds FK 0-2 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ostersunds FK see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, IFK Norrkoping 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Ostersunds FK and 68% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ostersunds FK's games and 68% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 68% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Ostersunds FK and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IFK Norrkoping edge out Ostersunds FK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping beat Ostersunds FK 1-2 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.28 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.34 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 1.02 / defence 1.15 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.05 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 33% | Draw 32% | IFK Norrkoping 36%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 52%, IFK Norrkoping 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Norrkoping arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.