IF Elfsborg 3-0 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF meet at Borås Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
IF Elfsborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Borås Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Degerfors IF have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward IF Elfsborg. A 0.50 PPG lead over Degerfors IF (1.70 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 46% versus Degerfors IF 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 46% | Degerfors IF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.12 xG and Degerfors IF 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.075 / defence 1.010 | Degerfors IF attack 0.731 / defence 1.341. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.128. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.341 — this is suppressing IF Elfsborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 IF Elfsborg games / 13 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 66% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 12%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Degerfors IF 8.33. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (66%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 60% | Degerfors IF 43%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 66% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.12 / Degerfors IF 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.075 / def 1.010 | Degerfors IF attack 0.731 / def 1.341 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Degerfors IF xG
51%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 0 Degerfors IF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 66% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 12% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.07x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (0.73x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 43/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
66%
1.52
22%
4.57
12%
8.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.95
0.83
Degerfors IF xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
8.11
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
12%
8.34
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
1%
67.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 0.83 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 7W 2D 4L from 13 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 6L across 13 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Degerfors IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.08 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 games (1.77 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Degerfors IF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.86 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.71 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-6 on 1 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
1
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 6, Degerfors IF have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 43%, Degerfors IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IF Elfsborg) and 29% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 43% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 29% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Degerfors IF 3-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.12 xG and Degerfors IF 0.83 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Degerfors IF landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Degerfors IF attack 0.73 / defence 1.34, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 66% | Draw 22% | Degerfors IF 12%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 46%, Degerfors IF 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.