Mjallby AIF 0-1 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Mjallby AIF take on Djurgardens IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF meet at Strandvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mjallby AIF have posted 6W 2D 2L at Strandvallen — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Strandvallen. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mjallby AIF are significantly better at Strandvallen than their overall form suggests.
Djurgardens IF have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, Djurgardens IF are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Djurgardens IF half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 57% versus Djurgardens IF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 50% | Djurgardens IF 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 0.79 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.692 / defence 0.919 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.019 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.129. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Mjallby AIF games / 44 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 24% | Draw 38% | Djurgardens IF 38%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 4.17 | Draw 2.63 | Djurgardens IF 2.63. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 24% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mjallby AIF 30% | Djurgardens IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 24% | Draw 38% | Djurgardens IF 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Mjallby AIF 0.79 / Djurgardens IF 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.692 / def 0.919 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.019 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Djurgardens IF xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Mjallby AIF 0 - 1 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 24% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 38% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mjallby AIF's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (1.02x) against Mjallby AIF's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
24%
4.23
38%
2.60
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
1.85
1.06
Djurgardens IF xG
4.23
24%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.57
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
35%
2.88
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 16.6 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.06 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mjallby AIF come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 13D 16L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.77 PPG from 44 outings (23W 9D 12L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Mjallby AIF's home form reads 10W 6D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.66 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 15W 13D 16L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 23W 9D 12L in their last 44 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Mjallby AIF's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.71 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mjallby AIF have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mjallby AIF
3
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 52%, Djurgardens IF 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Mjallby AIF) and 48% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Mjallby AIF's recent matches and 43% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mjallby AIF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 48% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out Mjallby AIF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat Mjallby AIF 0-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 0.79 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.06 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.69 / defence 0.92 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.02 / defence 0.80, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 24% | Draw 38% | Djurgardens IF 38%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 50%, Djurgardens IF 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.