Degerfors IF 3-1 Halmstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Halmstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus Halmstad in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 8 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Degerfors IF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 3W 7D 0L. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's home record at Stora Valla: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Halmstad's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Halmstad haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Halmstad's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Degerfors IF, 1.20 for Halmstad — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Degerfors IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 59% versus Halmstad 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Degerfors IF 50% | Halmstad 19%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.68 xG and Halmstad 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.991 / defence 0.930 | Halmstad attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.258. Data: 31 Degerfors IF games / 1 Halmstad games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 53% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 22%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Halmstad 4.55. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Degerfors IF 60% | Halmstad 30%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Halmstad | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 53% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Degerfors IF 1.68 / Halmstad 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.991 / def 0.930 | Halmstad attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Halmstad xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Halmstad kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Halmstad kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 April 2023 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Degerfors IF 3 - 1 Halmstad.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad part of?
Degerfors IF vs Halmstad is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 53% chance of winning, Halmstad a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Degerfors IF and Halmstad will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Halmstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
Record (2 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 1 | Halmstad 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Halmstad in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Halmstad (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.99x the league average against Halmstad's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Halmstad's attack (0.85x) against Degerfors IF's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
The sample (31/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
53%
1.87
24%
4.13
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.67
0.99
Halmstad xG
1.87
53%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
4%
23.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Halmstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.99 for Halmstad, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Halmstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 32 games, going 9W 10D 13L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Halmstad sit at 1.09 PPG from 32 outings (7W 14D 11L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. Halmstad haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.09 for Halmstad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 6W 6D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Halmstad have taken 1.00 points per game from 16 outings (4W 4D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Halmstad are on 0.72 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
Halmstad
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Halmstad in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 9W 10D 13L in their last 32 games (1.16 PPG), while Halmstad have gone 7W 14D 11L in their last 32 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Halmstad away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.50 PPG; Halmstad away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Halmstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Halmstad in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 0-5 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Halmstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
1
Halmstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
From 7 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 4, Halmstad have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Halmstad last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Halmstad 0-3 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Halmstad?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Halmstad see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 56%, Halmstad 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Degerfors IF) and 25% (Halmstad).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 38% of games; Halmstad in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Halmstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Halmstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 38% of Halmstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Halmstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 25% of Halmstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Halmstad tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Halmstad in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Halmstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Halmstad 3-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.68 xG and Halmstad 0.99 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.99 / defence 0.93 against Halmstad attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 31/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 53% | Draw 24% | Halmstad 22%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 50%, Halmstad 19%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Halmstad's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.16 PPG, Halmstad 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm. Halmstad (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.