Mjallby AIF 2-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees BK Hacken travel to Strandvallen to take on Mjallby AIF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's home record at Strandvallen: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Strandvallen this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, BK Hacken have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour BK Hacken — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
BK Hacken have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Mjallby AIF's 0 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Jun 2023, ended 0–3 with BK Hacken winning.
It is worth noting that BK Hacken have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Mjallby AIF in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mjallby AIF 40% versus BK Hacken 72%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mjallby AIF 35% | BK Hacken 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mjallby AIF 1.18 xG and BK Hacken 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mjallby AIF attack 0.770 / defence 1.134 | BK Hacken attack 1.017 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.201. Mjallby AIF's attack strength of 0.770 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 57 Mjallby AIF games / 57 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 42%. Fair-value odds: Mjallby AIF 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | BK Hacken 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Mjallby AIF 30% | BK Hacken 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Strandvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Mjallby AIF 1.18 / BK Hacken 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Mjallby AIF attack 0.770 / def 1.134 | BK Hacken attack 1.017 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Mjallby AIF xG
Expected Goals
1.38
BK Hacken xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Strandvallen.
What was the final score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF 2 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Strandvallen.
What competition is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken part of?
Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Mjallby AIF a 32% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Record (4 meetings): Mjallby AIF 0W | Draws 1 | BK Hacken 3W.
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in?
Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mjallby AIF's attack rating (0.77) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Mjallby AIF's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
32%
3.13
26%
3.78
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Mjallby AIF xG
Total xG
2.56
1.38
BK Hacken xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
8%
12.48
13%
7.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Mjallby AIF and 1.38 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mjallby AIF's recent record stands at 21W 15D 21L from 57 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 35W 13D 9L across 57 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjallby AIF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mjallby AIF have managed 8W 9D 11L from 28 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 13W 9D 6L across 28 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mjallby AIF are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.32 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken in 72%.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mjallby AIF
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Mjallby AIF have gone 21W 15D 21L in their last 57 games (1.37 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 35W 13D 9L in their last 57 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mjallby AIF at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mjallby AIF at home: 1.18 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Mjallby AIF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mjallby AIF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jun 2023, when BK Hacken won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mjallby AIF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mjallby AIF
1
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Mjallby AIF have won 5, BK Hacken have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Mjallby AIF 0-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mjallby AIF 57%, BK Hacken 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mjallby AIF) and 54% (BK Hacken).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mjallby AIF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mjallby AIF play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Mjallby AIF's games and 64% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mjallby AIF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mjallby AIF's recent games and 54% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mjallby AIF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Mjallby AIF have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mjallby AIF defy the odds to beat BK Hacken 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mjallby AIF beat BK Hacken 2-1 at Strandvallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mjallby AIF 1.18 xG and BK Hacken 1.38 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mjallby AIF beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mjallby AIF attack 0.77 / defence 1.13 against BK Hacken attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mjallby AIF 32% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 42%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Mjallby AIF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mjallby AIF 35%, BK Hacken 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
BK Hacken's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Mjallby AIF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. BK Hacken (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.