Gais 4-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gais at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gais face Orgryte IS.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Gais and Orgryte IS meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.

Current Form

Gais's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Gais have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Orgryte IS have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Orgryte IS have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Gais against 1.90 for Orgryte IS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Gais, 2 for Orgryte IS and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2023, ended Gais 4–1 Orgryte IS — a Gais win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Gais goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gais 59% and Orgryte IS 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 50% | Orgryte IS 59%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.71 xG and Orgryte IS 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.734 / defence 0.791 | Orgryte IS attack 1.011 / defence 1.508. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.354. Gais's attack rating of 0.734 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.71. Orgryte IS's defence rating of 1.508 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gais's projected output up. Gais have a tight defence (rating 0.791), which is pulling Orgryte IS's projected output down. Data: built from Gais's last 35 games and Orgryte IS's last 5.

Result probabilities: Gais 51% | Draw 27% | Orgryte IS 23%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.98 | Draw 3.73 | Orgryte IS 4.42. Gais hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gais 50% (last 10 home games) | Orgryte IS 40% (last 10 away games).

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