Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sirius at 72% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sirius vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Studenternas IP plays host to Sirius versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sirius have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sirius's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Studenternas IP this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kalmar FF (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kalmar FF haven't played a Allsvenskan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Kalmar FF away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Sirius's favour (1.90 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sirius register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Kalmar FF in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Sirius 3W, Kalmar FF 1W, 5D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 3–1 with Sirius winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sirius — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Kalmar FF — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sirius 77% and Kalmar FF 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sirius 70% | Kalmar FF 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sirius 2.56 xG and Kalmar FF 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sirius attack 1.374 / defence 0.837 | Kalmar FF attack 0.828 / defence 1.219. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.321. Sirius carry an above-average attack strength of 1.374 — their λ of 2.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Kalmar FF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.219 — this is suppressing Sirius's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Sirius games / 5 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sirius 72% | Draw 17% | Kalmar FF 11%. Fair-value odds: Sirius 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Kalmar FF 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Sirius (72%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sirius as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sirius 70% | Kalmar FF 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sirius vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Studenternas IP • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sirius 72% | Draw 17% | Kalmar FF 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 56% | xG Sirius 2.56 / Kalmar FF 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sirius attack 1.374 / def 0.837 | Kalmar FF attack 0.828 / def 1.219 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Sirius (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Sirius xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Kalmar FF xG
56%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sirius vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Studenternas IP.
What was the final score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Sirius 3 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is Sirius vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Studenternas IP.
What competition is Sirius vs Kalmar FF part of?
Sirius vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Sirius a 72% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 11% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Sirius the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sirius and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Sirius vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
Record (9 meetings): Sirius 3W | Draws 5 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are Sirius and Kalmar FF in?
Sirius (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Kalmar FF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sirius's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.56. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (0.83x) against Sirius's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sirius Win
72%
1.38
17%
5.90
11%
9.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Sirius xG
Total xG
3.48
0.92
Kalmar FF xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.90
17%
Draw
9.34
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
8%
12.95
Win to Nil
29%
3.46
1%
120.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Sirius and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Sirius and 0.92 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sirius vs Kalmar FF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sirius's recent record stands at 11W 6D 13L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Kalmar FF, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 16L across 30 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. Kalmar FF haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Sirius against 1.00 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sirius have managed 7W 2D 6L from 15 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Kalmar FF's away record stands at 4W 4D 7L across 15 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sirius come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sirius are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.27 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sirius have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Kalmar FF in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sirius
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sirius and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
Sirius have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 8W 6D 16L in their last 30 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sirius at home or Kalmar FF away?
Sirius's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sirius at home: 1.53 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sirius go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sirius won 3-0 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sirius have gone 3W 3D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sirius
5
Draws
1
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, Sirius have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sirius and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sirius 3-2 Kalmar FF.
Who has won more matches between Sirius and Kalmar FF?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Sirius, 80% for Kalmar FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sirius and 67% for Kalmar FF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sirius home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sirius play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sirius's games and 80% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sirius vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sirius's matches and 67% of Kalmar FF's.
Do Sirius and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
Sirius have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sirius edge out Kalmar FF 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sirius beat Kalmar FF 3-2 at Studenternas IP, Regular Season - 6, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sirius 2.56 xG and Kalmar FF 0.92 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Kalmar FF outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sirius attack 1.37 / defence 0.84 against Kalmar FF attack 0.83 / defence 1.22, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sirius 72% | Draw 17% | Kalmar FF 11%, with Sirius to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sirius 70%, Kalmar FF 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sirius's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sirius 1.30 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sirius win broke the near-deadlock. Sirius (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.